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Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?

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  • Ruppert, Kilian
  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the Germancurrent account balance since the 2000s. Our results suggest that an array of struc-tural tax and labor market reforms (Agenda 2010), population aging and pensionreforms led to an increase in the household savings rate in Germany until about2010. As domestic investment opportunities could not absorb these additional sav-ings, they were partly invested abroad. The German current account-to-GDP ratiorose. After 2010, private savings remained rather stable, but opportunities to investin Germany declined further. Our simulations suggest that a tight fiscal stance inGermany (combined with an expansionary stance in the rest of the world), under-investment in the corporate sector and productivity gains in emerging economiesafter 2010 significantly contributed to this.

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  • Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:412020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Imbalances; Population Aging; Labor Market Reforms; Fiscal Policy; DSGE Modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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