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Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

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Author Info

  • Attanasio Orazio P.

    ()
    (University College London)

  • Kitao Sagiri

    ()
    (New York University)

  • Violante Giovanni L.

    ()
    (New York University)

Abstract

This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

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File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm.2006.6.issue-1/bejm.2006.6.1.1298/bejm.2006.6.1.1298.xml?format=INT
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-44

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:advances.6:y:2006:i:1:n:2

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References

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  1. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Kyung-Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Working Papers 2003-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  3. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  4. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen To Financial Markets When The Baby Boomers Retire?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 92, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 3.
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  8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1998. "Voiting on social security reform with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers in Economics 36, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Assaf Razin & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Effective Tax Rates in Macroeconomics: Cross-Country Estimates of Tax Rates on Factor Incomes and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
  11. Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1998. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Working Papers 9801, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
  13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, . "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  2. Axel H. Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2010. "Old Europe ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Working Papers 15744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  4. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
  5. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  6. Kam Ki Tang & Michael Graff & Jie Zhang, . "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4111, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  7. Mendoza, Enrique G & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2010. "The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 19-55 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2008. "Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2031-2060, June.
  10. Steven F. Venti, 2010. "Comment on "Aging Populations, Pension Operations, Potential Economic Disappointment and Its Allocation"," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 326-331 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Hiroyuki Ito & Ken Tabata, 2010. "The spillover effects of population aging, international capital flows, and welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 665-702, March.
  12. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2009. "Living Standards in an Aging Germany: The Benefits of Reforms and the Costs of Resistance," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 163-179, June.
  13. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2008. "Beggar thy thrifty neighbour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 933-959, October.
  14. Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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