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Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies

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Author Info
Orazio P. Attanasio (University College London)
Sagiri Kitao (New York University)
Giovanni L. Violante (New York University)

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Abstract

This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

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File URL: http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1298&context=bejm
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): advances.6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:advances.6:y:2006:i:1:n:2

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Web page: http://www.bepress.com/bejm

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Related research
Keywords: capital flows; demographic transition; developing economies; growth; social security; welfare;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

Cited by:
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  1. Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Graff & Kam Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, 2008. "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," KOF Working papers 08-194, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & Sang-Hyop Lee, 2008. "The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2008. "Beggar thy thrifty neighbour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 933-959, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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