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Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki
  • Gilles Le Garrec
  • Cyrille Schwellnus

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the demographic and economic consequences of endogenous migrations flows over the coming decades in a multi-regions overlapping generations general equilibrium model (INGENUE 2) in which the world is divided in ten regions. Our analysis offers a global perspective on the consequences of international migration flows. The value-added of the INGENUE 2 model is that it enables us to analyze the effects of international migration on both the destination and the origin regions. A further innovation of our analysis is that international migration is treated as endogenous. In a first step, we estimate the determinants of migration in an econometric model. We show, in particular, that the income differential is one of the key variables explaining migration flows. In a second step, we endogenize migration flows in the INGENUE 2 model. In order to do so, we use the econometrically estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in the INGENUE model, which enables us to project long-run migration flows and to improve on projections of purely demographic models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2009-06.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-06

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Keywords: CGEM; Migration; International capital flows;

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References

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  1. Luca MARCHIORI & I-Ling SHEN & Frederic DOCQUIER, 2009. "Brain drain in globalization A general equilibrium analysis from the sending countries’ perspective," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales), Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) 2009013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  2. Anna Maria Mayda, 2007. "International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0707, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  3. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  4. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2007. "Explaining U.S. Immigration, 1971-1998," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 359-373, May.
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  6. Chojnicki, Xavier & Docquier, Frédéric & Ragot, Lionel, 2005. "Should the U.S. Have Locked the Heaven's Door? Reassessing the Benefits of the Postwar Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1676, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  9. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2005. "L'immigration « choisie » face aux défis économiques du vieillissement démographique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1359-1384.
  10. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  13. François Héran & Gilles Pison, 2007. "Two children per woman in France in 2006: are immigrants to blame?," Population and Societies, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED) 432, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
  14. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 565-91, September.
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  16. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers, HAL hal-00962464, HAL.
  2. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Labor Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS, HAL hal-00962464, HAL.
  5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers, CEPII research center 2010-27, CEPII research center.

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