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Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis

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Author Info
Vladimir Borgy
Xavier Chojnicki
Gilles Le Garrec
Cyrille Schwellnus

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Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the demographic and economic consequences of endogenous migrations flows over the coming decades in a multi-regions overlapping generations general equilibrium model (INGENUE 2) in which the world is divided in ten regions. Our analysis offers a global perspective on the consequences of international migration flows. The value-added of the INGENUE 2 model is that it enables us to analyze the effects of international migration on both the destination and the origin regions. A further innovation of our analysis is that international migration is treated as endogenous. In a first step, we estimate the determinants of migration in an econometric model. We show, in particular, that the income differential is one of the key variables explaining migration flows. In a second step, we endogenize migration flows in the INGENUE 2 model. In order to do so, we use the econometrically estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in the INGENUE model, which enables us to project long-run migration flows and to improve on projections of purely demographic models.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2009-06.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-06

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Related research
Keywords: CGEM; migration; international capital flows;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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