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The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon

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  • Jean Fouré
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Lionel Fontagné

Abstract

We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2012-03.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2012-03

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Keywords: GDP projections; long run; global economy;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152134, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  2. Janne Niemi & Juha Honkatukia & Ville Kaitila & Markku Kotilainen, 2012. "Global trade and climate policy scenarios ? Impact on Finland," Working Papers 37, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  3. Verónica Acurio Vasconez & Gaël Giraud & Florent Mc Isaac & Ngoc Sang Pham, 2012. "Energy and Capital in a New-Keynesian Framework," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12092, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  4. Yang, Fan & Brockmeier, Martina, 2012. "An Outlook of World Food Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators in 2020 - A Sensitivity Analysis of Different Baseline Scenarios Using GTAP," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 133056, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  5. Nancy Birdsall, Christian Meyer, Alexis Sowa, 2013. "Global Markets, Global Citizens, and Global Governance in the 21st Century," Working Papers 329, Center for Global Development.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  7. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's Box: Modelling World Trade Patterns at the 2035 Horizon," Working Papers 2013-22, CEPII research center.
  8. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
  9. Matthias Bauer & Andreas Freytag, 2013. "Cumulative Benefits from Trade Liberalization for the South African Economy," Jena Economic Research Papers 2013-036, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  10. Nancy Birdsall, Nora Lustig, Christian Meyer, 2013. "The Strugglers: The New Poor in Latin America?-Working Paper 337," Working Papers 337, Center for Global Development.

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