Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union
AbstractThis paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2519.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2007-01-06 (European Economics)
- NEP-LAB-2007-01-06 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2007-01-06 (Transition Economics)
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