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Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union

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  • Zaiceva, Anzelika

    ()
    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)

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    Abstract

    This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2519.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519

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    Keywords: migration extrapolations; EU enlargement; panel data;

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    1. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July.
    2. Stark, Oded, 1984. "Migration decision making : De Jong, Gordon F. and Robert W. Gardner, eds., (Pergamon, New York, 1981)," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 251-259.
    3. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    7. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    8. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, 03.
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    11. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2, 8.
    12. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
    13. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
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