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Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union

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Author Info
Anzelika Zaiceva () (IZA Bonn)
Abstract

This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2519.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519

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Related research
Keywords: migration extrapolations; EU enlargement; panel data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-2, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  4. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
  8. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Thomas Bauer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  11. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David G. Blanchflower, 2008. "International evidence on well-being," NBER Working Papers 14318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Zaiceva, Anzelika & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Scale, Diversity, and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 3595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wido Geis & Wilhelm Kohler, 2008. "Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2009. "Migration in an enlarged EU: A challenging solution?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7200, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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