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Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union

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  • Zaiceva, Anzelika

    ()
    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)

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    Abstract

    This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2519.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519

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    Related research

    Keywords: migration extrapolations; EU enlargement; panel data;

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    References

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    1. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    2. Thomas Straubhaar, 2001. "East-West migration: Will it be a problem?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 167-170, July.
    3. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, 03.
    5. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
    6. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    8. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. " Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-98, June.
    9. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. repec:wop:humbsf:1995-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Kraus, Margit & Schwager, Robert, 2000. "EU enlargement and immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-09, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    13. Stark, Oded, 1984. "Migration decision making : De Jong, Gordon F. and Robert W. Gardner, eds., (Pergamon, New York, 1981)," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 251-259.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Migration in an Enlarged EU: A Challenging Solution?," IZA Discussion Papers 3913, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel J. & Geis, Wido & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2008. "Restrictive immigration policy in Germany: pains and gains foregone?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. DavidG. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages F136-F182, 02.
    4. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    5. David G. Blanchflower, 2008. "International evidence on well-being," NBER Working Papers 14318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Timo Baas & Herbert Brücker, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: evidence for Germany and the UK," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012010, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    7. Fertig, Michael & Kahanec, Martin, 2013. "Mobility in an Enlarging European Union: Projections of Potential Flows from EU's Eastern Neighbors and Croatia," IZA Discussion Papers 7634, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Zaiceva, Anzelika & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2008. "Scale, Diversity and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 6921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gligorov, Vladimir, 2009. "Mobility and Transition in Integrating Europe," MPRA Paper 19198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Vladimir BORGY & Xavier CHOJNICKI & Gilles LE GARREC & Cyrille SCHWELLNUS, 2010. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 97-98, pages 13-39.

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