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Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

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Author Info
Robin Brooks (International Monetary Fund)
Abstract

This paper uses a multiregion overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility to simulate the general equilibrium effects of projected population trends on international capital flows. It finds that retirement saving by aging baby boomers will raise the supply of capital substantially above investment in both the European Union and North America, causing both regions to export large amounts of capital to Africa, Latin America, and other emerging markets in the years ahead. Beyond 2010, however, baby boomers in the European Union and North America will dissave in retirement, causing both regions to become capital importers. This shift will be financed by capital flows from Latin America and other emerging markets, while Africa will remain dependent on foreign capital for the foreseeable future because of continued high population growth. Despite severe population aging, Japan is predicted to remain a substantial capital exporter beyond 2030. Copyright 2003, International Monetary Fund

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 50 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 3
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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:50:y:2003:i:2:p:3

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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  1. Philipp Harms & Philipp an de Meulen, 2009. "The Demographics of Expropriation Risk," Working Papers 09.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  2. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Ageing," Working Papers id:506, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," DNB Working Papers 065, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Olivia S Mitchell & John Piggott & Michael Sherris & Shaun Yow, 2006. "Financial Innovation for an Ageing World," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Henning Bohn, 2006. "Optimal Private Responses to Demographic Trends: Savings, Bequests and International Mobility," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  11. Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics--An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Takumi Naito & Laixun Zhao, 2008. "Aging, transitional dynamics, and gains from trade," Discussion Paper Series 215, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
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