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The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence J. Kotlikoff

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Abstract

This paper develops a three-region dynamic general-equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze general and skill-specific immigration policy in the U.S., Japan, and the E.U. Immigration is often offered as a solution to the remarkable demographic transition underway in the developed world. However, the precise net impact of expanded immigration is quite unclear. Additional immigrants pay taxes, but they also require public goods and become eligible for social security programs. Since taxes and transfer payments are collected and distributed on a progressive basis, high-skilled immigrants deliver a larger bang for the buck when it comes to paying net taxes. Our model confirms this point. Nonetheless, its findings are not pretty. It shows that a significant expansion of immigration, whether across all skill groups or among particular skill groups, will do remarkably little to alter the major capital shortage, tax hikes, and reductions in real wages that can be expected along the demographic transition.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal FinanzArchiv.

Volume (Year): 60 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 296-
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Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200409)60:3_296:troiid_2.0.tx_2-_

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Related research
Keywords: demographic transition; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); immigration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Thai Than Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Whitehouse, Edward, 2001. "Pension systems in 15 countries compared: the value of entitlements," MPRA Paper 14751, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, . "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  8. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Altig et al., 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1998. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Working Paper 9811, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Lundborg, Per & Segerstrom, Paul S., 2002. "The growth and welfare effects of international mass migration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 177-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-009, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dennis P. J. Botman & Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 07/247, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms," MEA discussion paper series 05094, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-027, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," MEA discussion paper series 04064, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2006. "Is the United States bankrupt?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 235-250. [Downloadable!]
  9. SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2009. "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A multi-country simulation model," Discussion papers 09020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  10. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," NBER Working Papers 11858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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