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Aging and International Capital Flows

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Author Info

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

    () (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Ludwig, Alexander

    () (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA) and Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Winter, Joachim

    () (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 02-27.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 22 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:02-27

Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Brugiavini, Agar, 2000. "Savings: The Policy Debate in Europe," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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  13. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
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