The Impact of Population Ageing on the Czech Economy
AbstractThe Czech Republic is facing a population ageing phenomenon. In addition, its demographic structure is expected to change dramatically over the next 50 years. We apply a stylised overlapping generation model in order to analyse the potential effects of the expected demographic changes on aggregate economic performance taking into account alternative fiscal policy set-ups. We provide a rough estimate of the amendments necessary on the revenue and expenditure sides in order to keep the current system financially balanced. We also discuss the implications for the development of other economic variables. In particular, we separately simulate future developments in the cases of adjustment in either the contribution rate or the value of public benefit. In addition, we demonstrate that parametric changes, such as an increase in the statutory retirement age, cannot eliminate the impact of the deterioration in the demographic structure on the course of the economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2009/1.
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/
More information through EDIRC
Population ageing; public pension systems; social security.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2009-11-07 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2009-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2009-11-07 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2009-11-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2009-11-07 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Axel Borsch-Supan & Lothar Essig, 2003. "Household Saving in Germany: Results of the first SAVE study," NBER Working Papers 9902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rasmussen, Tobias N. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2004. "Modeling overlapping generations in a complementarity format," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1383-1409, April.
- Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, FrÃ©dÃ©ric & AntolÃn, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005.
"The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
- Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
- Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Mario CatalÃƒÂ¡n & Jaime Guajardo, 2007. "Coping with Spain's Aging," IMF Working Papers 07/122, International Monetary Fund.
- James Poterba, 2004.
"The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
- French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991.
"Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-26, May.
- Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research Department 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- M De Nardi & S Imrohoroglu & TJ Sargent, 2001. "Saving and pension reform in general equilibrium models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 20-39, Spring.
- Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
- Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004.
"Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
- Alan G. Ahearne & William L. Griever & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of U.S. holdings of foreign equities," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 691, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Buiter, Willem H, 1997.
"Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution,"
Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science,
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(256), pages 605-26, November.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1995. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution," NBER Working Papers 5087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1996. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Savings, and Intergenerational Distribution," IMF Working Papers 96/76, International Monetary Fund.
- Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2004.
"Population Ageing and International Capital Flows,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domeij, David & FlodÃ©n, Martin, 2003. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 539, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 21 Oct 2003.
- Martin Floden & David Domeij, 2004. "Population Aging and International Capital Flows," 2004 Meeting Papers 490, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kamil Dybczak, 2006. "Generational Accounts in the Czech Republic," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research Department 2006/2, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Stefan W. Schmitz, 2007. "Demographic Change, Bank Strategy and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 13, pages 98-114.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979.
"Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Miles, David K, 1997.
"Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- David Kocourek & Filip Pertold, 2011. "The Impact of Early Retirement Incentives on Labor Market Participation: Evidence from a Parametric Change in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(5), pages 467-483, November.
- Robert Ambrisko & Jan Babecky & Jakub Rysanek & Vilem Valenta, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research Department 2012/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- David Kocourek & Filip Pertold, 2009. "Impact of Early Retirement Incentives on Labour Market Participation: Evidence from a Parametric Change in the Czech Republic," Working Papers, Czech National Bank, Research Department 2009/7, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.