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Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows

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Author Info
Melanie Lührmann () (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between demographic change and international capital flows using a large cross-country time-series dataset. The analysis provides empirical evidence of a substantial and twofold demographic effect on international capital flows: First, capital flows are induced by changes in present demography. Countries with a large working-age population tend to be net exporters of capital, relatively younger economies importers of capital and extremely aged countries with a major population share of elderly also tend to import capital. In particular, high youth dependency induces current account deficits. Second, the paper provides evidence that future demographic changes are anticipated and affect current net capital flows, too. This twofold demographic effect on international capital flows can be hampered by capital controls and other capital market frictions. The impact of these frictions is also explored in the paper. The results indicate that they indeed affect capital flows.

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Paper provided by Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 03038.

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Date of creation: 16 Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:03038

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Postal: MEA - Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel, L13, 17, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim
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Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

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  1. Socio-Economics of Innovation
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara J, 1993. "What We Have Learned about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 426-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto A. De Santis & Melanie Lührmann, 2006. "On the determinants of external imbalances and net international portfolio flows - a global perspective," Working Paper Series 651, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Jens Köke & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance," MEA discussion paper series 04053, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christiane Nickel & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 935, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barbara Berkel, 2004. "Institutional Determinants of International Equity Portfolios - A Country-Level Analysis," MEA discussion paper series 04061, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  6. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2008. "Old Europe Ages: Reforms and Reform Backlashes," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barbara Berkel, 2004. "Institutional Determinants of International Equity Portfolios - A Country-Level Analysis," MEA discussion paper series 04061, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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