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Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations

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  • Kieran Mc Morrow
  • Werner R�ger
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    Abstract

    The implications of ageing populations over the coming decades at the global level will be significant in terms of not only a slowdown in the growth rate of output and living standards but also with regard to fiscal and financial market trends. Given the backdrop of the downward trend in world-wide potential growth rates over the past number of decades, driven by falling rates of capital accumulation and a slowdown in productivity growth, the additional negative impact of relative declines in the growth rate of working age populations over the coming decades bodes ominously for future world-wide economic developments. The focus of the present paper is to quantify and analyse the nature, extent and geographical reach of the "real" economy and budgetary aspects of ageing populations as well as providing an initial assessment of the financial market implications of this phenomenon.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 182.

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    Length: 96 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0182

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    Related research

    Keywords: population ageing; growth rate; productivity growth; working age population; Mc Morrow; R�ger;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Jansen, Pieter W., 2006. "Low inflation, a high net savings surplus and institutional restrictions keep the Japanese long-term interest rate low," Serie Research Memoranda 0011, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    2. Adema, Y. & Meijdam, A.C. & Verbon, H.A.A., 2006. "Beggar Thy Thrifty Neighbour: The International Spillover Effects of Pensions Under Population Ageing," Discussion Paper 2006-47, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Ulrich Thießen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares?: Evidence from Panel Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 785, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2006. "Financial markets trend: ageing and pension system reform," MPRA Paper 18391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. René Weber & David S. Gerber, 2007. "Aging, Asset Allocation, and Costs: Evidence for the Pension Fund Industry in Switzerland," IMF Working Papers 07/29, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
    7. Ulrich Thießen, 2007. "Aging and Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Casper van Ewijk & Erik Canton & Paul Tang, 2004. "Ageing and international capital flows," CPB Document 43, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks," Discussion Paper 2004-90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    11. Stijepic, Denis & Wagner, Helmut, 2009. "Population-ageing, structural change and productivity growth," MPRA Paper 37005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Feb 2012.
    12. E Philip Davis, 2006. "How Will Ageing Affect the Structure of Financial Markets?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.

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