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Aging and Structural Change

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  • Ulrich Thießen

Abstract

Many studies analyzed in depth how aging affects aggregate economic performance. But analyses of these effects on the employment structure are scarce and they do not consider that consumption patterns, the supply of goods and services, and also sectoral labor productivity are all likely to adjust to aging and will change. Hence, regression analysis of sectoral employment shares is proposed that controls for aging. For a large panel of countries and a long time period it is found that aging indeed affects relative employment of most sectors statistically highly significant either positive or negative. We also conclude that aging tends to accelerate ongoing structural change. This enables to derive specific policy implications. The approach could thus become a new method in forecasting employment and other effects of aging.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.74827.de/dp742.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 742.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp742

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Keywords: Aging; structural change; panel regressions;

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  1. Roland Dohrn & Ullrich Heilemann, 1996. "The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 411-425, October.
  2. Martin Raiser & Mark Schaffer & Johannes Schuchhardt, 2003. "Benchmarking Structural Change in Transition," CERT Discussion Papers 0301, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  3. Börsch-Supan, Axel H. & Heiss, Florian & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2003. "Pension reform, capital markets and the rate of return," Munich Reprints in Economics 20200, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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  5. Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, Frédéric & Antolín, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 32, McMaster University.
  7. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2003. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 5-44, 08.
  8. Boes,Dieter & von Weizsaecker,Robert, 1988. "Economic consequences of an aging population," Discussion Paper Serie A 191, University of Bonn, Germany.
  9. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2003. "Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 182, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  10. Axel B�Rsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
  11. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Düzgün, Ismail & Weiss, Matthias, 2005. "Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung," MEA discussion paper series 05073, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  12. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 138, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  13. Melanie Lührmann, 2005. "Population Aging and the Demand for Goods & Services," MEA discussion paper series 05095, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  14. repec:fth:eeccco:138 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
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