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Aging and Structural Change

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Author Info
Ulrich Thießen

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Abstract

Many studies analyzed in depth how aging affects aggregate economic performance. But analyses of these effects on the employment structure are scarce and they do not consider that consumption patterns, the supply of goods and services, and also sectoral labor productivity are all likely to adjust to aging and will change. Hence, regression analysis of sectoral employment shares is proposed that controls for aging. For a large panel of countries and a long time period it is found that aging indeed affects relative employment of most sectors statistically highly significant either positive or negative. We also conclude that aging tends to accelerate ongoing structural change. This enables to derive specific policy implications. The approach could thus become a new method in forecasting employment and other effects of aging.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.74827.de/dp742.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 742.

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Length: 20 p.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp742

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Related research
Keywords: Aging; structural change; panel regressions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Raiser, Martin & Schaffer, Mark & Schuchhardt, Johannes, 2004. "Benchmarking structural change in transition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 47-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Boes,Dieter & von Weizsaecker,Robert, 1988. "Economic consequences of an aging population," Discussion Paper Serie A 191, University of Bonn, Germany.
  3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Ismail Düzgün & Matthias Weiss, 2005. "Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung," MEA discussion paper series 05073, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Axel Börsch-Supan, 2003. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," LABOUR, CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 5-44, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Axel Boersch-Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Melanie Lührmann, 2005. "Population Aging and the Demand for Goods & Services," MEA discussion paper series 05095, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Mc Morrow, K. & Roeger, W., 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 138, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  10. Roland Dohrn & Ullrich Heilemann, 1996. "The Chenery hypothesis and structural change in Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 411-425, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN & ALEXANDER LUDWIG & JOACHIM WINTER, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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