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Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence

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Author Info
Matthew Higgins
Jeffrey G. Williamson

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Abstract

Ansley Coale and Edgar Hoover were right about Asia. Rising fertility and declining infant mortality have had a profound impact on Asian savings, investment and foreign capital dependency since Coale and Hoover wrote in 1958. We argue that: Much of the impressive rise in Asian savings rates since the 1960s can be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth dependency burdens; Where Asia has kicked the foreign capital dependence habit is where youth dependency burdens have fallen most dramatically; Aging will not diminish Japan's capacity to export capital in the next century, but little of it will go to the rest of Asia since the rest will become net capital exporters, at least if demography is allowed to have its way. These conclusions emerge from a model which rejects steady-state analysis in favor of transition analysis, and extends the conventional focus of the dependency rate literature on savings to investment and net capital flows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5560.

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Date of creation: May 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5560

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  5. Robert Haveman & Barbara Wolfe, 1995. "The Determinants of Children's Attainments: A Review of Methods and Findings," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1829-1878, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Andreas Andersson & Pär Österholm, 2005. "Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data -- the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 267-272, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ronald B. Davies & Robert R. Reed III, 2003. "Population Aging, Foreign Direct Investment, and Tax Competition," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 10 Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andreas Andersson & Pär Österholm, 2006. "Population age structure and real exchange rates in the OECD," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Erik Canton & Casper van Ewijk & Paul Tang, 2004. "Ageing and International Capital Flows," CPB Documents 43, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. T. Paul Schultz, 2004. "Demographic Determinants of Savings: Estimating and Interpreting the Aggregate Association in Asia," Working Papers 901, Economic Growth Center, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2002. "Swedish post-war economic development. The role of age structure in a welfare state," Arbetsrapport 2003:4, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
  9. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes, 2000. "Will Japan's Current Account Turn to Deficit?," Working Papers 200010, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Douglas Gollin & Eric Van Dusen & Harvey Blackburn, 2008. "Animal genetic resource trade flows: Economic assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-20, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fabian Lange & Douglas Gollin, 2007. "Equipping Immigrants: Migration Flows and Capital Movements," IZA Discussion Papers 2745, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat, 2007. "Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?," Working Paper Series 1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2002. "Determinants of Private Saving Behaviour in Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0206, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. K. Navaneetham, 2002. "Age structural transition and economic growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 337, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alberto Bagnai & Stefano Manzocchi, 1999. "Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 143-163, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Matthew Higgins, 1997. "Demography, national savings and international capital flows," Staff Reports 34, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  19. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Gustav Feichtinger & Alexia Prskawetz & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2002. "Age-structured optimal control in population economics," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-045, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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