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Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares? Evidence from Panel Datak

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Author Info
Ulrich Thiessen () (DIW Berlin)
Konstantin A. Kholodilin () (DIW Berlin)
Boriss Siliverstovs () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute)

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Abstract

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors—e.g. income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size—aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in the aging proxies exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, increasing share of the elderly people in the society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector. In the simulation exercise, we illustrate the effects of aging on the employment structure within the next 45 years.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 08-214.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-214

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Related research
Keywords: Structural change; aging; employment shares; dynamic panel data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Margarita Sapozhnikov & Robert K. Triest, 2007. "Population Aging, Labor Demand, and the Structure of Wages," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-14, Center for Retirement Research, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 32, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Shelton, Cameron A., 2008. "The aging population and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 647-651, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Phillip Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mc Morrow, K. & Roeger, W., 1999. "The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 138, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  9. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN & ALEXANDER LUDWIG & JOACHIM WINTER, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Phillip Swagel, 2002. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 900-918, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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