The economic consequences of ageing populations
AbstractThis paper examines the economic implications of ageing populations. Simulations with the QUEST II model, which take explicit account of the labour force and public finance implications of ageing, suggest per capita living standards in the EU, US and Japan are likely to fall significantly over the next 50 years due to the direct influence of the ageing process. The effect of ageing populations in terms of slowing the rate of growth of potential output will also make the budgetary implications of ageing more difficult for the individual economies to bear. If the scenarios prove accurate, economic agents in Europe could be looking at an annual half point reduction in potential growth rates from the present 2 Â¼ percent to an average rate of 1 Â¾ percent over the period 2000-2050, representing a cumulative GDP loss of nearly 20 percent. Cumulative reductions of 10% and 21Â½% are predicted for the US and Japan respectively. While it can be argued that the latter no policy change simulation may be unrealistic in that Governments are unlikely to stand idly by, it nevertheless gives an idea of the scale of the task faced by policymakers in devising policy measures aimed at avoiding, or at least cushioning, the potential shock to peoples' living standards.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 138.
Length: 104 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
ageing; demographics; public finances;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
- Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003.
"Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook,"
Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports
383, McMaster University.
- Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 102, McMaster University.
- Ulrich Thießen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008.
"Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares?: Evidence from Panel Data,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
785, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ulrich Thiessen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares? Evidence from Panel Datak," KOF Working papers 08-214, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Conrad, Alexander, 2008. "Banking in schrumpfenden Regionen: Auswirkungen von Alterung und Abwanderung auf Regionalbanken," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 94, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
- Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
- Ulrich Thießen, 2007. "Aging and Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Medeiros, João, 2000. "Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.