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Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

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  • Siliverstovs, Boriss
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Thiessen, Ulrich

Abstract

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 244-260

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:244-260

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
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Keywords: Structural change Aging Employment shares Dynamic panel data;

References

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  1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 123, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Richard Kohl & Paul O'Brien, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Ageing, Pensions and Savings: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
  3. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2008. "Dynamic Globalization and Its Potentially Alarming Prospects for Low-Wage Workers," NBER Working Papers 14527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  5. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2003. "Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 182, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Swagel, Phill, 2001. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," CEPR Discussion Papers 2930, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
  8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
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  10. Windmeijer, Frank, 2000. "Moment conditions for fixed effects count data models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 21-24, July.
  11. Shelton, Cameron A., 2008. "The aging population and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 647-651, April.
  12. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  14. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  15. repec:fth:eeccco:138 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. K. Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 1999. "The economic consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 138, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  17. Phillip Swagel & Efraim Sadka & Assaf Razin, 2002. "The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State," IMF Working Papers 02/68, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, Frédéric & Antolín, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mollick, André Varella, 2012. "Income inequality in the U.S.: The Kuznets hypothesis revisited," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-144.
  2. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406, September.

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