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Economic Costs of Population Aging

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Author Info
Frank T. Denton
Byron G. Spencer

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Abstract

In just over three decades all those born during the post-war baby boom will be 65 and older, and the fraction of the population ‘old’ will be far greater than previously experienced in Canada, or indeed in any modern industrial nation. That prospect has given rise to major concerns about our ability as a society to meet the large anticipated additions to health care, pension, and other costs associated with the increase in the older population. However, a balanced view requires that attention be given to all publicly provided services, not only to those services used in large measure by the elderly, and also to privately provided goods and services, since the costs must be charged against the same national income in both cases. Beyond that, it is important to recognize that population change affects not only the demand side of the economy, but also the supply side, the nation’s productive capacity. This paper reviews the literature to assess the magnitude of the prospective cost increases associated with the aging of the Canadian population and considers the practical implications for government programs and policies.

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Paper provided by McMaster University in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 1999-02.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:mcm:deptwp:1999-02

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  1. Vaupel, James W, 1998. "Demographic Analysis of Aging and Longevity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 242-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
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  3. F.T. Denton & C. Feaver & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 317, McMaster University.
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  4. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Poterba, James M & Venti, Steven F & Wise, David A, 1996. "How Retirement Saving Programs Increase Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 91-112, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Clark, Robert L & Kreps, Juanita & Spengler, Joseph J, 1978. "Economics of Aging: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 919-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Immigration, Labour Force, and the Age Structure of the Population," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 24, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael D. Hurd, 1993. "The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. David K. Foot, 1984. "The Demographic Future of Fiscal Federalism in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 10(4), pages 406-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Schieber, Sylvester J & Shoven, John B, 1996. "Social Security Reform: Around the World in 80 Ways," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 373-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jonathan Gruber, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Canada," NBER Working Papers 6308, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. John Burbidge, 1996. "Public Pensions in Canada," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
  13. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 9, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Peter Diamond, 1996. "Public Provision of Pensions: The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-6, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1996. "Social Security Privatization: A Structure for Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Osberg, Lars, 1993. "Is It Retirement or Unemployment? Induced 'Retirement' and Constrained Labour Supply among Older Workers," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 505-19, April.
  19. Jacques Henripin, 1994. "The Financial Consequences of Population Aging," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 20(1), pages 78-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Albert Jaeger & Sheetal K. Chand, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  21. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne, 1999. "How do retirement tests affect the labour supply of older men?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 27-51, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Carroll, Chris & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Why have private savings rates in the United States and Canada diverged?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-279, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  24. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 23, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Axel Borsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Germany," NBER Working Papers 6153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  28. Gramlich, Edward M, 1996. "Different Approaches for Dealing with Social Security," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 55-66, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. John Burbidge & Deborah Fretz & Michael R. Veall, 1998. "Canadian and American Saving Rates and the Role of RRSPs," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(2), pages 259-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. M. S. Marzouk, 1991. "Aging, Age-Specific Health Care Costs and the Future Health Care Burden in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(4), pages 490-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "How Old is Old? Revising the Definition Based on Life Table Criteria," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 2, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 301-13, August.
  35. Lee, Ronald & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1998. "Uncertain Demographic Futures and Social Security Finances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 237-41, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 340, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcelin Joanis & David Boisclair & Claude Montmarquette, 2004. "La santé au Québec : des options pour financer la croissance," CIRANO Project Reports 2004rp-04, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ulrich Thießen, 2007. "Aging and Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ulrich Thiessen & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Does Aging Influence Sectoral Employment Shares? Evidence from Panel Datak," Working papers 08-214, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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