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Population Aging and the Demand for Goods & Services

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  • Melanie Lührmann

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effect of population aging on the aggregate demand for goods and services between 2000 and 2040. As the composition of goods and services consumed varies over the life cycle, the aggregate demand structure is likely to change as well when the population is aging. I estimate these microeconomic age-specific household demands for a set of eight composite goods using a quadratic almost ideal demand system model. The projections are carried out in scenarios in order to distinguish: i) the direct effect of a shift of the age structure, ii) accompanying changes in the level and distribution of spending power and in household composition. The results point to significant increases in the expenditure shares of health and leisure goods and a decline in necessities like food and energy in all scenarios. The direct effect of a shift in the age structure as well as the asymmetric intergenerational distribution of spending power have significant effects on aggregate demand. Changes in household composition – decreasing average household size, but a slow reduction in the number of households – do not affect demand substantially. The future design of the pension system has only a minor impact on the distribution of incomes and total expenditures and thus also a negligible impact on aggregate demand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 05095.

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Date of creation: 24 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05095

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Postal: Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 München, Germany
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References

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  1. Deaton, A. & Paxson, C., 1993. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Papers 168, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  2. Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2005. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement," Working Papers 242, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  3. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1993. "Consumer demand and the life-cycle allocation of household expenditures," IFS Working Papers W93/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  4. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1984. "Consumption during Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 1-7, February.
  5. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-88, September.
  6. Lundberg, Shelly & Startza, Richard & Stillman, Steven, 2003. "The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1199-1218, May.
  7. Raffaele Miniaci & Chiara Monfardini & Guglielmo Weber, 2003. "Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in Italy?," IFS Working Papers W03/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Deaton, Angus, 1986. "Demand analysis," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1767-1839 Elsevier.
  9. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-97, June.
  10. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
  11. Blundell, Richard & Walker, Ian, 1986. "A Life-Cycle Consistent Empirical Model of Family Labour Supply Using Cross-Section Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 539-58, August.
  12. Blundell, Richard, 1988. "Consumer Behaviour: Theory and Empirical Evidence--a Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 16-65, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Ulrich Thießen, 2007. "Aging and Structural Change," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 742, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Max Groneck & Christoph Kaufmann, 2014. "Relative Sectoral Prices and Population Ageing: A Common Trend," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.

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