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Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models

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  • Christian Gouriéroux

    (SMU)

  • Peter C. B. Phillips
  • Jun Yu

Abstract

It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with .xed eects is inconsistent under .xed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider applicability and can, for instance, be easily ex-tended to more complicated frameworks such as nonlinear models. Monte Carlo studies show that the proposed procedure achieves substantial bias reductions with only mild increases in variance, thereby substantially reducing root mean square errors. The method is compared with certain consistent estimators and bias-corrected ML estimators previously proposed in the literature and is shown to have superior .nite sample properties to GMM and the bias-corrected ML of Hahn and Kuersteiner (2002). Finite sample performance is compared with that of a recent estimator proposed by Han and Phillips (2005).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Development Economics Working Papers with number 22421.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eab:develo:22421

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Keywords: Autoregression; Bias Reduction; Dynamic panel;

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1438, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2004.
  2. GARCIA, René & RENAULT, Eric & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Estimation of stable distributions by indirect inference," CORE Discussion Papers 2006112, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  4. Maurice J.G. Bun & Jan F. Kiviet, 2002. "The Effects of Dynamic Feedbacks on LS and MM Estimator Accuracy in Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-101/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Feb 2004.
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  7. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, 07.
  8. Andersen, Torben G., 2000. "Simulation-Based Econometric Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 131-138, February.
  9. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2008. "Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices," Finance Working Papers 22473, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
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  14. Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January.
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  19. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Carree, Martin A., 2005. "Bias-Corrected Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 200-210, April.
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  23. Monfort, Alain, 1996. "A Reappraisal of Misspecified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 597-619, October.
  24. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  25. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  26. Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2007. "GMM Estimation for Dynamic Panels with Fixed Effects and Strong Instruments at Unity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1599, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Chiara Monfardini, 1998. "Estimating stochastic volatility models through indirect inference," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C113-C128.
  28. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
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