Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Simulation-based Estimation of Contingent-claims Prices

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo studies show that the proposed procedures achieve bias reductions over ML estimation in pricing contingent claims. The bias reductions are sometimes accompanied by reductions in variance, leading to significant overall gains in mean squared estimation error. Empirical applications to US treasury bills highlight the differences between the bond prices implied by the simulation-based approach and those delivered by ML. Some consequences for the statistical testing of contingent-claim pricing models are discussed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d15b/d1596.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1596.

as in new window
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1596

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Related research

Keywords: Bias reduction; Bond pricing; Indirect inference; Option pricing; Simulation-based estimation;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  2. Christian Gourieroux & Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2006. "Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1550, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  4. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert L., 2010. "Estimating affine multifactor term structure models using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 113-144, October.
  5. Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  7. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Xu, Yuewu, 2003. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time-inhomogeneous diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 107-139, May.
  8. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-52, July.
  9. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 1999. "Transition Densities for Interest Rate and Other Nonlinear Diffusions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1361-1395, 08.
  10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood and Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Finance," Development Economics Working Papers 22471, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  11. Ai[diaeresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 413-452, February.
  12. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  13. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  14. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
  15. Jun Yu, 2007. "Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models," Working Papers CoFie-06-2008, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics, revised Oct 2008.
  16. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1996. "Unit roots and the estimation of interest rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 215-238, June.
  17. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
  18. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
  19. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
  20. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  21. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
  22. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2003. "Jackknifing Bond Option Prices," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1392, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  23. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  24. Bakshi, Gurdip & Ju, Nengjiu & Ou-Yang, Hui, 2006. "Estimation of continuous-time models with an application to equity volatility dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 227-249, October.
  25. Boyle, Phelim P. & Ananthanarayanan, A. L., 1977. "The impact of variance estimation in option valuation models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 375-387, December.
  26. Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 231-247, August.
  27. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
  28. Monfort, Alain, 1996. "A Reappraisal of Misspecified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 597-619, October.
  29. Durham, Garland B & Gallant, A Ronald, 2002. "Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-Time Diffusion Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 297-316, July.
  30. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-form Approximation Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 223-262, January.
  31. Phillips, P C B, 1972. "The Structural Estimation of a Stochastic Differential Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1021-41, November.
  32. Chiara Monfardini, 1998. "Estimating stochastic volatility models through indirect inference," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C113-C128.
  33. Andersen, Torben G., 2000. "Simulation-Based Econometric Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 131-138, February.
  34. James G. MacKinnon & Anthony A. Smith Jr., 1995. "Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics," Working Papers 919, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  35. Knight, John L & Satchell, Stephen E., 1997. "Existence of Unbiased Estimators of the Black/Scholes Option Price, Other Derivatives, and Hedge Ratios," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 791-807, December.
  36. Hans J. Skaug & Jun Yu, 2007. "Automated Likelihood Based Inference for Stochastic Volatility Models," Working Papers CoFie-01-2007, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  37. Tripathi, Gautam, 2000. "Econometric Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 139-142, February.
  38. Andersen, Torben G. & Chung, Hyung-Jin & Sorensen, Bent E., 1999. "Efficient method of moments estimation of a stochastic volatility model: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 61-87, July.
  39. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," NBER Working Papers 7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  41. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-09, March.
  42. Pierce, James L, 1984. "Did Financial Innovation Hurt the Great Monetarist Experiment?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 392-96, May.
  43. Geyer, Alois L J & Pichler, Stefan, 1999. "A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-30, Spring.
  44. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-65, January.
  45. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
  46. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  47. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:597-619 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  49. Samuel Thompson, 2008. "Identifying Term Structure Volatility from the LIBOR-Swap Curve," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 819-854, April.
  50. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Statistical tests of contingent-claims asset-pricing models : A new methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 143-173, September.
  51. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1984. "The Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Security Price Volatility: Theory, Evidence, and Application to Option Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 97-112, January.
  52. Butler, J. S. & Schachter, Barry, 1986. "Unbiased estimation of the Black/Scholes formula," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-357, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2013. "Indirect Inference in fractional short-term interest rate diffusions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 109-126.
  2. Christian Gouriéroux & Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2006. "Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models," Development Economics Working Papers 22421, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Xiaohu Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Bias in Estimating Multivariate and Univariate Diffusions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1778, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Tore Selland Kleppe & Jun Yu & Hans J. skaug, 2011. "Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Latent Diffusion Models," Working Papers 10-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  5. Jun Yu, 2009. "Bias in the Estimation of the Mean Reversion Parameter in Continuous Time Models," Microeconomics Working Papers 23045, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  6. Xiao, Wei-Lin & Zhang, Wei-Guo & Yao, Zheng & Wang, Xiao-Hui, 2013. "The impact of issuing warrant and debt on behavior of the firm's stock," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 635-641.
  7. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
  8. Mario Cerrato & Chia Chun Lo & Konstantinos Skindilias, 2011. "Adaptive continuous time Markov chain approximation model to general jump-diffusions," Working Papers 2011_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.