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Abstract

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with longterm demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closedeconomy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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Paper provided by Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre in its series Discussion Papers with number 605.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1006

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Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-mannheim.de/institut/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
• J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
• E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
• F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
• G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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