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Aging and International Capital Flows

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Author Info
Axel Boersch-Supan
Alexander Ludwig
Joachim Winter

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Abstract

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8553.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8553

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  2. Kenneth R. French & James M. Poterba, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 3609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Maddison, Angus, 1987. "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 649-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
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  6. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. A Börsch-Supan & A Brugiavini, 2001. "Savings: the policy debate in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 116-143, Spring.
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  9. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Miles, David & Iben, Andreas, 2000. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers across Generations in the United Kingdom and Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 203-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1995. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: How Do They Affect Saving?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 156, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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