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The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State

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  • Razin, Assaf
  • Sadka, Efraim
  • Swagel, Phillip

Abstract

Data for the United States and countries in Western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the dependency ratio and labour tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after controlling for other factors that influence the size of the welfare state. This is despite the increased political clout of the dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This Paper develops an overlapping generations model of intra-and inter-generational transfers (including old-age social security) and human capital formation which addresses this seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, an increase in the dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes or less generous social transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Swagel, Phillip, 2001. "The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State," CEPR Discussion Papers 2930, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2930
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Assaf Razin & Joel Slemrod, 1990. "Taxation in the Global Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number razi90-1, March.
    2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    3. Jacob Frenkel & Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1991. "International Taxation in an Integrated World," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061430, December.
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    6. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Swagel, Phillip, 2002. "Tax burden and migration: a political economy theory and evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 167-190, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pay-as-you-go tax-transfer system; Overlapping-generations model; Fiscal leakage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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