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Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework

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  • Giuseppe Carone
  • C�cile Denis
  • Kieran Mc Morrow
  • Gilles Mourre
  • Werner R�ger

Abstract

This paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable macroeconomic framework against which to assess the potential economic and fiscal effects of ageing populations. This assessment was carried out as part of the work undertaken by the EU's Economic Policy Committee, in its Ageing Working Group, to project the public expenditure implications of ageing on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 253.

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Length: 92 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0253

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Keywords: labour productivity; GDP projections; ageing populations; public expenditure; pensions; health care; long-term care; unemployment; education; Carone; Denis; Mc Morrow; Mourre; R�ger;

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References

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  1. Ben-David, Dan, 1995. "Trade and Convergence Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
  2. Barrios, Salvador & Burgelman, Jean-Claude, 2007. "Information and Communication Technologies, Market Rigidities and Growth: Implications for EU Policies," MPRA Paper 5838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
  4. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
  5. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Why Does Austria's Economy Grow Faster than Germany's?," WIFO Working Papers 280, WIFO.
  6. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.
  7. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2011. "Crisis And Economic Growth In The Eu," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 411-431, november.
  8. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Growth crisis in the EU — challenges and prospects," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 329-336, September.
  9. Gilles Mourre, 2009. "What explains the differences in income and labour utilisation and drives labour and economic growth in Europe? A GDP accounting perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 354, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  10. Robert Holzmann & Landis MacKellar & Jana Repansek, 2009. "Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe : Linking to Labor and Financial Market Reforms," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2587, January.
  11. G. Lalanne & E. Pouliquen & O. Simon, 2009. "Oil price and potential output growth in the long run," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2009-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  12. Herman de Kwaatsteniet, 2011. "Demand Variability in Supply Chains: The Influence of Global developments and Globalization on the Local Dutch Steel Industry," Working Papers 2011/32, Maastricht School of Management.

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