Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework
AbstractThis paper presents the results of long run labour productivity and GDP growth rate projections (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States and provides a detailed overview of the forecast methodology used. These projections were undertaken in order to provide an internationally comparable macroeconomic framework against which to assess the potential economic and fiscal effects of ageing populations. This assessment was carried out as part of the work undertaken by the EU's Economic Policy Committee, in its Ageing Working Group, to project the public expenditure implications of ageing on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 253.
Length: 92 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
labour productivity; GDP projections; ageing populations; public expenditure; pensions; health care; long-term care; unemployment; education; Carone; Denis; Mc Morrow; Mourre; R�ger;
Other versions of this item:
- Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
- D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben-David, Dan, 1995.
"Trade and Convergence Among Countries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1126, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Judith K. Hellerstein & David Neumark & Kenneth R. Troske, 1996.
"Wages, Productivity, and Worker Characteristics: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions and Wage Equations,"
NBER Working Papers
5626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hellerstein, Judith K & Neumark, David & Troske, Kenneth R, 1999. "Wages, Productivity, and Worker Characteristics: Evidence from Plant-Level Production Functions and Wage Equations," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(3), pages 409-46, July.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994.
"Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X., 1996. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1325-1352, June.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Hansen, G D, 1993.
"The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
- Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Papers 36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- F. Daveri & M. Maliranta, 2006.
"Age, technology and labour Costs,"
Economics Department Working Papers
2006-EP07, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
- Francesco Daveri & Mika Maliranta, 2006. "Age, Technology and Labour Costs," Working Papers 309, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Daveri, Francesco & Maliranta, Mika, 2006. "Age, Technology and Labour Costs," Discussion Papers 1010, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005.
"Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing,"
Labor and Demography
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," European Economy - Economic Papers 235, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995.
"Economic Convergence and Economic Policies,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1715, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 5039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0035, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1996. "The Evolution of Wages in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2004. "Will the U.S. productivity resurgence continue?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Dec).
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vegard Skirbekk, 2003. "Age and individual productivity: a literature survey," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
- Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, January.
- Giuseppe Carone & Declan Costello & Nuria Diez Guardia & Gilles Mourre & Bartosz Przywara & Aino Salomaki, 2005. "The economic impact of ageing populations in the EU25 Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 236, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 176, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Buddelmeyer, Hielke & Mourre, Gilles & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2004. "The Determinants of Part-Time Work in EU Countries: Empirical Investigations with Macro-Panel Data," IZA Discussion Papers 1361, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Peter Downes & Aaron Drew & Patrice Ollivaud, 2003. "The OECD Medium-Term Reference Scenario: Economic Outlook No.74," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 372, OECD Publishing.
- Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
- Buddelmeyer, Hielke & Mourre, Gilles & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2004. "Recent Developments in Part-Time Work in EU-15 Countries: Trends and Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 1415, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge,"
553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
- Barrios, Salvador & Burgelman, Jean-Claude, 2007. "Information and Communication Technologies, Market Rigidities and Growth: Implications for EU Policies," MPRA Paper 5838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Heidler, Matthias & Müller, Christoph & Weddige, Olaf, 2009. "Measuring accrued-to-date liabilities of public pension systems: Method, data and limitations," FZG Discussion Papers 37, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
- Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
- Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Why Does Austria's Economy Grow Faster than Germany's?," WIFO Working Papers 280, WIFO.
- Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.
- Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2011.
"Crisis And Economic Growth In The Eu,"
Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice,
Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 411-431, november.
- Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Growth crisis in the EU — challenges and prospects," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 329-336, September.
- Gilles Mourre, 2009. "What explains the differences in income and labour utilisation and drives labour and economic growth in Europe? A GDP accounting perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 354, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Robert Holzmann & Landis MacKellar & Jana Repansek, 2009. "Pension Reform in Southeastern Europe : Linking to Labor and Financial Market Reforms," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2587, January.
- G. Lalanne & E. Pouliquen & O. Simon, 2009. "Oil price and potential output growth in the long run," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2009-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
- Herman de Kwaatsteniet, 2011. "Demand Variability in Supply Chains: The Influence of Global developments and Globalization on the Local Dutch Steel Industry," Working Papers 2011/32, Maastricht School of Management.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.