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Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030

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  • Felipe, Jesus
  • Kumar, Utsav
  • Abdon, Arnelyn

Abstract

We forecast average annual GDP growth for 147 countries for 2010–2030. We use a cross-country regression model where the long-run fundamentals are determined by the countries’ accumulated capabilities and the capacity to undergo structural transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2012. "Using capabilities to project growth, 2010–2030," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 153-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:26:y:2012:i:1:p:153-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2011.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Norio Usui & Arnelyn Abdon, 2013. "Why has China succeeded? And why it will continue to do so," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 37(4), pages 791-818.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    4. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar & Arnelyn Abdon, 2014. "As You Sow So Shall You Reap: From Capabilities to Opportunities," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 488-515, December.
    5. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Mr. Juan Zalduendo & Ms. Catia Batista, 2004. "Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?," IMF Working Papers 2004/203, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Briones, Roehlano & Felipe, Jesus, 2013. "Agriculture and Structural Transformation in Developing Asia: Review and Outlook," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 363, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    3. Mohamed Chakroun & Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi, 2021. "Does export upgrading really matter to economic growth? Evidence from panel data for high‐, middle‐ and low‐income countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5584-5609, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capabilities; Forecast; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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