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The OECD Medium-Term Reference Scenario: Economic Outlook No.74

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  • Peter Downes
  • Aaron Drew
  • Patrice Ollivaud

Abstract

This working paper describes a medium-term reference scenario for the OECD based on the shortterm projections described in OECD Economic Outlook No.74. OECD-wide real GDP is projected to expand at 2¾ per cent per annum between 2006 and 2009 and the area-wide rate of unemployment to fall below 6 per cent at the end of the period, while inflation rises only slightly. Despite a fairly robust recovery, fiscal balances remain in significant deficit for the area as a whole; there is little overall improvement in current external imbalances between regions ... Le scenario de reference de l'OCDE a moyen terme : Perspectives économiques no.74 Ce document de travail décrit un scénario de référence à moyen terme pour les pays de l'OCDE se basant pour le court terme sur les prévisions des Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE No.74. La croissance du PIB réel de l'OCDE est projetée à 2¾ pour cent par an entre 2006 et 2009 et le taux de chômage de la zone décroîtrait sous le seuil de 6 pour cent en 2009, alors que l'inflation augmenterait seulement légèrement. Malgré une reprise plutôt robuste, les soldes budgétaires continueraient d'être fortement déficitaires pour l'ensemble de la zone. Il y aurait peu d'amélioration en général des déséquilibres actuels des balances courantes entre les régions ...

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Downes & Aaron Drew & Patrice Ollivaud, 2003. "The OECD Medium-Term Reference Scenario: Economic Outlook No.74," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 372, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:372-en
    DOI: 10.1787/415580146531
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    1. Boss, Alfred, 2003. "Steuerharmonisierung oder Steuerwettbewerb?," Kiel Working Papers 1178, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Peter J. Nicholson, 2003. "The Growth Story: Canada's Long-run Economic Performance and Prospects," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 3-23, Fall.
    3. Alberto BUCCI, 2004. "Economic growth in an enlarged Europe: the human capital and R&D dimensions," Departmental Working Papers 2004-22, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    4. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 3-28.
    5. Michael J. Artis & Luca Onorante, 2007. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Cobham (ed.), The Travails of the Eurozone, chapter 6, pages 123-145, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Feldmann, Horst, 2009. "Business regulation, labor force participation and employment in industrial countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 238-260.
    7. Karl Aiginger, 2003. "A Three Tier Strategy for Successful European Countries in the Nineties," WIFO Working Papers 205, WIFO.
    8. Matteo Luciani, 2004. "A VAR Model for the Analysis of the Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 94(6), pages 175-214, November-.
    9. Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Remittances and the brain drain," Development Working Papers 214, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    10. de Mello, Luiz, 2006. "Fiscal responsibility legislation and fiscal adjustment : the case of Brazilian local governments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3812, The World Bank.
    11. Alina Ștefania CHENIC (CREȚU) & Alin Ioan CREȚU & Laurențiu TEȘCAN, 2018. "A Long Term Analysis of Two Undeniable Realities of the XXI Century - Global Economic Crisis and Demographic Aging," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(2), pages 196-212, May.
    12. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2006. "The effects of macroeconomic policy shocks on the UK labour market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 229-244.
    14. Heinz Handler & Bertrand Koebel & Philipp Reiss & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2005. "The Size and Performance of Public Sector Activities in Europe," WIFO Working Papers 246, WIFO.
    15. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2004. "Macroeconomic policies of the Economic and Monetary Union: theoretical underpinnings and challenges," Chapters, in: Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer (ed.), Neo-Liberal Economic Policy, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Someshwar Rao & Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2003. "Canada's Recent Productivity Record and Capital Accumulation," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 24-38, Fall.
    17. Lukas Reiss, 2009. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Packages in Times of Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 78-99.
    18. Rosenschon, Astrid, 2003. "Ist die Finanzpolitik der Bundesländer nachhaltig?," Kiel Working Papers 1173, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts; international; international; OCDE; OECD; prévisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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