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• Aaron Drew

This working paper describes a medium-term reference scenario for the OECD based on the shortterm projections described in OECD Economic Outlook No.74. OECD-wide real GDP is projected to expand at 2¾ per cent per annum between 2006 and 2009 and the area-wide rate of unemployment to fall below 6 per cent at the end of the period, while inflation rises only slightly. Despite a fairly robust recovery, fiscal balances remain in significant deficit for the area as a whole; there is little overall improvement in current external imbalances between regions ...

Le scenario de reference de l'OCDE a moyen terme : Perspectives économiques no.74

Ce document de travail décrit un scénario de référence à moyen terme pour les pays de l'OCDE se basant pour le court terme sur les prévisions des Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE No.74. La croissance du PIB réel de l'OCDE est projetée à 2¾ pour cent par an entre 2006 et 2009 et le taux de chômage de la zone décroîtrait sous le seuil de 6 pour cent en 2009, alors que l'inflation augmenterait seulement légèrement. Malgré une reprise plutôt robuste, les soldes budgétaires continueraient d'être fortement déficitaires pour l'ensemble de la zone. Il y aurait peu d'amélioration en général des déséquilibres actuels des balances courantes entre les régions ...

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 372.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:372-en

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Keywords: OECD OCDE international prévisions forecasts international

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C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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1. Carone, Giuseppe & Denis, Cécile & Mc Morrow, Kieran & Mourre, Gilles & Röger, Werner, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," MPRA Paper 744, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

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