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Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing

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  • Giuseppe Carone

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and results of labour force projections over the long term (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States. These projections were undertaken in order to provide the background technical inputs for the assessment of the potential economic and fiscal impact of an ageing population. This assessment is carried out in the framework of the EU Economic Policy Committee's Ageing Working Group by projecting public expenditure on pensions, health care, long-term care, unemployment insurance and education.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 235.

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Length: 214 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0235

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Keywords: Labour force projections; population projections; cohort method; ageing population; pension reforms; dependency ratios; Carone;

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References

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  1. Peter Scherer, 2002. "Age of Withdrawal from the Labour Force in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 49, OECD Publishing.
  2. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2008. "Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy," Working Papers 2008_30, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  4. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
  5. Romain Duval, 2003. "The Retirement Effects of Old-Age Pension and Early Retirement Schemes in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 370, OECD Publishing.
  6. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
  7. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2005. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Introduction and Summary," NBER Working Papers 11290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  9. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, EconWPA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Asghar Zaidi & Aaron George Grech & Michael Fuchs, 2006. "Pension policy in EU25 and its possible impact on elderly poverty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6225, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Serguey Ivanov, 2009. "Demographic and economic factors of labour supply: Long-term projections and policy options for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 7(1), pages 83-122.
  3. Jürgen Janger & Johann Scharler & Alfred Stiglbauer, 2006. "The Potential Growth Prospects of the Austrian Economy — Methods and Determinants," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 24–52.
  4. Alessandra Caretta & Sara Flisi & Cecilia Frale & Michele Raitano & Simone Tedeschi, 2013. "T-DYMM : the treasury dynamic microsimulation model of the Italian pension system," Working Papers 11, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  5. Michael Fuchs & Mattia Makovec & Asghar Zaidi, 2006. "Transition from Work to Retirement in EU25," CASE Papers case112, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
  6. Karsten Wasiluk, 2014. "Technology Adoption and Demographic Change," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2014-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  7. Christian Dudel, 2009. "The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 158, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  8. Francesco D'Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2010. "Immigration and Occupations in Europe," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1026, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  9. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2006. "Effekte alternativer Annahmen auf die prognostizierte Erwerbsbevölkerung," IAB Discussion Paper 200619, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  10. Grech, Aaron George, 2007. "Pension policy in EU25 and its impact on pension benefits," MPRA Paper 33669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Asghar Zaidi & Mattia Makovec & Michael Fuchs, 2006. "Transition from work to retirement in EU25," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6229, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  12. Giuseppe Carone & C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 253, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  13. Eichhorst, Werner & Gerard, Maarten & Kendzia, Michael J. & Mayrhuber, Christine & Nielsen, Conny & Rünstler, Gerhard & Url, Thomas, 2011. "Report No. 42: Pension Systems in the EU – Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," IZA Research Reports 42, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris, 2007. "Einflussfaktoren auf das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial : Demografie und Erwerbsverhalten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," IAB Discussion Paper 200712, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  15. Nick Adnett & Stephen Hardy, 2007. "The peculiar case of age discrimination: Americanising the European social model?," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 29-41, February.

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