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Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy

In: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform

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  • Agar Brugiavini
  • Franco Peracchi

Abstract

In this paper, we contribute to the current debate on the Italian pension system by analyzing the impact of social security reforms, in terms of both budgetary implications and distributional effects. This is done by simulating the effects of three hypothetical reforms, plus the effects of the 1995- reform of the Italian pension system (the so-called Dini reform). Our approach relies on the use of a semi-structural econometric model to predict retirement probabilities under different policy scenarios, so as to properly take into account the behavioral effects of the reforms. On the basis of the estimated retirement model, we develop a complete accounting exercise which includes not only changes in gross future benefits due to policy changes, but also changes in social security contributions, income taxes and value added taxes. Thus, our results provide not only estimates of the workers� gains or losses, but also an exhaustive evaluation of the gains and losses for the government budget. We find that the reforms, particularly the Dini reform (once fully phased in), have a substantial impact on individuals� retirement decisions and their net social security wealth, as well as substantial gains for the government finances.
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Suggested Citation

  • Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2007. "Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform, pages 253-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi & David A. Wise, 2002. "Pensions and Retirement Incentives. A Tale of Three Countries: Italy, Spain and the USA," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(2), pages 131-169, December.
    2. Daniele Franco, 2002. "Italy: A Never-Ending Pension Reform," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, pages 211-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2010. "Youth Unemployment and Retirement of the Elderly: The Case of Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 167-215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Peters, Fabian & Raffelhüschen, Bernd & Reeker, Gerrit, 2017. "Ehrbare Staaten? Update 2016: Die Nachhaltigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Europa," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 137, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    3. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabián & María del Carmen Boado-Penas, "undated". "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDCs): Solvency and Risk; Application to the Case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 226, FEDEA.
    4. Belloni, Michele & Alessie, Rob, 2009. "The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 578-588, October.
    5. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Brugiavini, Agar, 2009. "Welfare reforms and labour supply in Italy," Working Paper Series 2009:29, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    7. Agar Brugiavini & Raluca Elena Buia & Giacomo Pasini & Guglielmo Weber, 2019. "The Evolution of Incentives for Retirement in Italy, 1980–2015," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Reforms and Retirement Incentives, pages 227-269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alina Ștefania CHENIC (CREȚU) & Alin Ioan CREȚU & Laurențiu TEȘCAN, 2018. "A Long Term Analysis of Two Undeniable Realities of the XXI Century - Global Economic Crisis and Demographic Aging," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(2), pages 196-212, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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