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Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy

In: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform

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  • Agar Brugiavini
  • Franco Peracchi

Abstract

In this paper, we contribute to the current debate on the Italian pension system by analyzing the impact of social security reforms, in terms of both budgetary implications and distributional effects. This is done by simulating the effects of three hypothetical reforms, plus the effects of the 1995- reform of the Italian pension system (the so-called Dini reform). Our approach relies on the use of a semi-structural econometric model to predict retirement probabilities under different policy scenarios, so as to properly take into account the behavioral effects of the reforms. On the basis of the estimated retirement model, we develop a complete accounting exercise which includes not only changes in gross future benefits due to policy changes, but also changes in social security contributions, income taxes and value added taxes. Thus, our results provide not only estimates of the workers’ gains or losses, but also an exhaustive evaluation of the gains and losses for the government budget. We find that the reforms, particularly the Dini reform (once fully phased in), have a substantial impact on individuals’ retirement decisions and their net social security wealth, as well as substantial gains for the government finances.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2007. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub07-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 0056.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:0056

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi & David A. Wise, 2002. "Pensions and Retirement Incentives. A Tale of Three Countries: Italy, Spain and the USA," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(2), pages 131-169, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2010. "Youth Unemployment and Retirement of the Elderly: The Case of Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, pages 167-215 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," European Economy - Economic Papers 235, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabián & María del Carmen Boado-Penas, . "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts (NDCs): Solvency and Risk; Application to the Case of Spain," Studies on the Spanish Economy 226, FEDEA.
    4. M. Belloni & R. Alessie, 2008. "The Importance of Financial Incentives on Retirement Choices: New Evidence for Italy," Working Papers 08-10, Utrecht School of Economics.

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