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Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing

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  • Giuseppe Carone

    (European Commission - DG ECFIN)

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and results of labour force projections over the long term (until 2050) for each of the 25 EU Member States. These projections were undertaken in order to provide the background technical inputs for the assessment of the potential economic and fiscal impact of an ageing population. The projections presented in this paper show the outcome for the labour force of extrapolating recent trends in labour market behaviour (entry and exit rates from the labour market). These base case projections reflect the working assumption of “no policy change” and are neither forecasts nor predictions in that they are not based on any assessment of more or less likely future changes in working patterns or economic conditions. To summarise the outcome of projections, the baseline scenario indicates that, notwithstanding the projected increase in the participation rates and the reduction in unemployment rates, the pace of labour force and employment growth in the EU25 will be weakly positive over the next 15 years and will turn negative over the period 2018 to 2050. These is mainly the outcome of projected declining trends for the working-age population and a shift in the age structure of the population towards older, less participating groups - a consequence of the baby-boom generation approaching retirement and the succeeding lower-birth-rate cohorts reaching working age.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0512006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 180
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour force projections; population projections; cohort method; ageing population; dependency ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • I00 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General - - - General

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