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Macroeconomic Consequences of Pension Reforms in Europe: An Investigation with the INGENUE World Model

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INGENUE Team
Abstract

This paper presents some results of the computable, general-equilibrium, multi- regional overlapping-generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to analyse the issues relating to wealth accumulation and alternative pension re-forms in the context of global finance. Hence it focuses on the international capital flows that ought to be induced by differential aging of the various regions of the world, as depicted by the UN demographic projections. The first section exhibits the stylized facts which suggest that a world equilibrium approach is appropriate and leads to an analysis of the convergence processes. The second section lays out the analytical structure of the world model and detail our choices of calibrating. The third section presents a baseline scenario of the world economy in the XXIth century. The fourth and final section analyses European public pension reforms scenarios.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2001-17.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2001-17

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Related research
Keywords: CGEM Demographics International capital flows OLG model

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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  1. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1995. "Reforming social security in a small open economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 469-485, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Charles I. Jones, . "Convergence Revisited," Working Papers 96006, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    Other versions:
  12. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1995. "Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 9, OECD Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," MEA discussion paper series 04064, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  4. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 123, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "GLOBAL AGING - Issues, Answers, More Questions," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-28, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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