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Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century

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  • Robert E. Lucas

Abstract

This note describes a numerical simulation of a model of economic growth, a simplified version of Robert Tamura's (1996) model of world income dynamics, based on technology diffusion. The model makes predictions for trends in average world income growth and about the evolution of the relative income distribution that accord well with observation. The model is used to forecast the course of world income growth and income inequality over the century to come.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.14.1.159
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 159-168

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:14:y:2000:i:1:p:159-168

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.14.1.159
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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "The poverty of nations: a quantitative exploration," Staff Report 204, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March.
  3. Pritchett, Lant, 1995. "Divergence, big time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1522, The World Bank.
  4. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Tamura, Robert, 1996. "From decay to growth: A demographic transition to economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1237-1261.
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