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Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model

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    Abstract

    This paper presents some results of the computable, general-equilibrium, multiregional overlapping-generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to analyse the issues relating to wealth accumulation and alternative pension reforms in the context of global finance. Hence it focuses on the international capital flows that ought to be induced by differential aging of the various regions of the world, as depicted by the UN demographic projections. The first section exhibits the stylized facts which suggest that a world equilibrium approach is appropriate and leads to an analysis of the convergence processes. The second section lays out the analytical structure of the world model and detail our choices of calibrating. The third section presents a baseline scenario of the world economy in the XXIth century. The fourth and final section analyses European public pension reforms scenarios.

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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/couv_orange/co0116.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) with number 0116.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0116

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    1. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1995. "Reforming social security in a small open economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 469-485, September.
    2. Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, EconWPA.
    3. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
    4. William Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1991. "L'harmonisation fiscale en Europe et l'économie française : une approche en équilibre général," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 245-272.
    5. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    6. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    7. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    8. Willem H. Buiter, 1979. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," NBER Working Papers 0352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
    10. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
    11. Charles I. Jones, . "Convergence Revisited," Working Papers 96006, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    12. Broer, Peter D. & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23.
    13. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1995. "Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents," Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE 9, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:
    1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 123, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Michel Juillard & Jacky Fayolle & Michel Aglietta & Jean Chateau & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touze & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2002. "Globalisation financière, vieillissement et convergence mondiale. Une exploration de quelques scenarios," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2089, Sciences Po.
    3. DE LA CROIX, David & DOCQUIER, Frédéric & LIEGEOIS, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," CORE Discussion Papers 2007043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2003. "Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 182, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    7. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    8. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

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