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Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte

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  • Hans Fehr
  • Sabine Jokisch

Abstract

The present article surveys recent studies which analyse specific aspects of the impact of demographic changes on international capital markets. We first present the most recent population trends in important OECD countries, then we discuss the consequences for aggregate world savings, interest rates, asset prices and capital flows. Overall, the existing theoretical and empirical evidence is highly inconsistent. While it seems to be most likely that population ageing will decrease world interest rates and increase the risk premium, some recent simulation models yield exactly the opposite results. Finally, if Asian countries continue to grow as in the past, they will supply the capital for Europe by the middle of this century. Copyright 2006 die Autoren Journal compilation 2006, Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Volume (Year): 7 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 501-517

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Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:7:y:2006:i:4:p:501-517

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  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.
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  3. Michaelides, Alexander & Gomes, Francisco J., 2005. "Optimal life cycle asset allocation : understanding the empirical evidence," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/, London School of Economics and Political Science.
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  7. Martin Browning & Thomas F. Crossley, 2000. "The Life Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 28, McMaster University.
  8. B Rsch-Supan, Axel H. & Jens K Ke, F. & Winter, Joachim K., 2005. "Pension reform, savings behavior, and capital market performance," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 87-107, March.
  9. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  10. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
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  23. Sabelhaus, John & Pence, Karen, 1999. "Household Saving in the '90s: Evidence from Cross-Section Wealth Surveys," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(4), pages 435-53, December.
  24. Bodie, Zvi & Merton, Robert C. & Samuelson, William F., 1992. "Labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice in a life cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 427-449.
  25. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, 06.
  26. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2005. "The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 45-66, 03.
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