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Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

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  • Barbara Berkel
  • Axel Börsch-Supan
  • Alexander Ludwig
  • Joachim Winter

Abstract

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion -"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this"- seems plausible, the results of economic theory are ambiguous at best. This paper employs a quantitative macroeconomic simulation model for Germany and leads to a more subtle view, stressing the importance of human capital formation for long-term economic growth in this context. Moreover, it takes a very long transitional period until a higher fertility rate results in a larger and better- educated labour force that contributes to social security. Therefore, reforms of the social security system still have the highest priority because this is the only way to solve the problems of an aging baby-boomer generation in the short and medium term - meaning the time until the baby boomers will retire. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004

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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 71-90

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Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:1:p:71-90

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  1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," Discussion Papers 605, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  2. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Pension reform during the demographic transition," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  3. David N. Weil, 1999. "Population Growth, Dependency, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 251-255, May.
  4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
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  8. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Privatizing Social Security in the U.S. -- Comparing the Options," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 532-574, July.
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  10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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  12. Robert Tamura, 2000. "Growth, fertility and human capital: A survey," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 183-229.
  13. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiß, Florian & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," Discussion Papers 589, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
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  15. Georg Hirte, 2002. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 81-106, 02.
  16. Miles, David & Iben, Andreas, 2000. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers across Generations in the United Kingdom and Germany," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(266), pages 203-28, May.
  17. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
  18. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2001. "Finding a Way Out of America's Demographic Dilemma," NBER Working Papers 8258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  21. Ross S. Ross S. & Ian M. McDonald, 2002. "Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(1), pages 29-44.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-08, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  3. Konrad, Kai A. & Richter, Wolfram F., 2003. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2003-02, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 1326, CESifo Group Munich.

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