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Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth

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  • Heer, Burkhard
  • Irmen, Andreas

Abstract

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.

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  • Heer, Burkhard & Irmen, Andreas, 2014. "Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:50-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.06.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Ono, Tetsuo & Uchida, Yuki, 2016. "Pensions, education, and growth: A positive analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 127-143.
    3. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    4. Oliwia Komada & Krzysztof Makarski & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2017. "Welfare effects of fiscal policy in reforming the pension system," GRAPE Working Papers 11, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    5. Heer, Burkhard & Irmen, Andreas, 2014. "Population, pensions, and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-72.
    6. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2023. "Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Burkhard Heer & Andreas Irmen & Bernd Süssmuth, 2023. "Explaining the decline in the US labor share: taxation and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1481-1528, December.
    8. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    9. Du, C. & Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2010. "Economy wide risk diversification in a three-pillar pension system," Research Memorandum 055, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Andreas Irmen, 2017. "Capital‐ And Labor‐Saving Technical Change In An Aging Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(1), pages 261-285, February.
    11. Andreas Irmen, 2017. "Technological progress, the supply of hours worked, and the consumption-leisure complementarity," PSE Working Papers halshs-01667017, HAL.
    12. Jan Acedański & Julia Włodarczyk, 2018. "Demographics, retirement age, and real interest rates in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 355-385, December.
    13. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    14. Burkhard Heer & Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2023. "Pension Systems (Un)sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis," Working Papers 2023014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Süssmuth, Bernd & Irmen, Andreas & Heer, Burkhard, 2020. "Taxation, Automation Capital, and the Functional Income Distribution," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. de Freitas, Carlos Eduardo & Paes, Nelson Leitão, 2019. "The collapse of Brazilian Social Security: Macroeconomic impacts of the increase of the minimum age of PEC nº 287/2016 reform," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.
    17. Ross Guest, 2014. "Population ageing and productivity: A survey with implications for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 153-168, August.
    18. Senhua Huang & Feng Han & Lingming Chen, 2023. "Can the Digital Economy Promote the Upgrading of Urban Environmental Quality?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-21, January.
    19. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Komada, Oliwia, 2021. "Efficiency versus Insurance: Capital Income Taxation and Privatizing Social Security," IZA Discussion Papers 14805, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Marius Bickmann, 2017. "Demographic Change and Labor Mobility," 2017 Meeting Papers 259, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Demographic transition; Capital accumulation; Pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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