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Welfare and Macroeconomic Effects of the German Pension Acts of 1992 and 1999: A Dynamic CGE Study

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  • Georg Hirte

Abstract

The German Pension Act of 1992 raises the mandatory retirement age while the Act of 1999 adjusts pension benefits to demographic changes. To examine welfare and macroeconomic effects of these reform schemes, we have carried out a dynamic CGE study. The model used is an enlarged version of the Auerbach-Kotlikoff model with endogenous retirement decisions, unemployment, age-dependent rates of unemployment, health, and long-term care insurance. The simulation is performed in two stages: first, the effects of the population decline in Germany are computed ignoring the reforms and, second, the effects of the reform schemes are examined and compared with the benchmark case. The results suggest that the Act of 1992 implies welfare gains while suspending the Act of 1999 induces welfare losses. Copyright Verein fü Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2002.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 3 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 81-106

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:3:y:2002:i:1:p:81-106

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  1. Fehr, Hans, 1998. "Privatization of public pensions in Germany: Who gains and how much?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 148, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  2. Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
  3. Burtless, Gary & Moffitt, Robert A, 1985. "The Joint Choice of Retirement Age and Postretirement Hours of Work," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(2), pages 209-36, April.
  4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, September.
  5. Fehr, Hans, 1999. "Welfare Effects of Dynamic Tax Reforms," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 5, number urn:isbn:9783161470165, December.
  6. Georg Hirte, 1999. "Raising the Retirement Age--Why Should Anybody Lose?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 219(3+4), pages 393-408, September.
  7. Hirte, Georg, 2001. "Pension Policies for an Aging Society," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 14, number urn:isbn:9783161475399, December.
  8. P. B. Sørensen, 1997. "Public finance solutions to the European unemployment problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(25), pages 221-264, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Habermann, Christian & Fehr, Hans, 2003. "Pension Reform and Demographic Uncertainty : The Case of Germany," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 47, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  2. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
  3. Timm Bönke & Carsten Schröder & Katharina Schulte, 2010. "Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 487-510, November.
  4. Honerkamp, Josef & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2004. "Earlier or Later: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Bringing Forward an Already Announced Tax Reform," Discussion Papers 123, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.
  5. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," MEA discussion paper series 02025, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  6. Honerkamp, Josef & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2002. "Earlier or later in CGE-models: The case of a tax reform proposal," Discussion Papers 102, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg.

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