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Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

Author

Listed:
  • Camille Logeay

    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Sven Schreiber

    (Goethe-University Frankfurt)

Abstract

The authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2005. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," IMK Working Paper 03-2005, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:03-2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lonnie Golden & Stuart Glosser, 2013. "Work sharing as a potential policy tool for creating more and better employment: A review of the evidence," Chapters, in: Jon C. Messenger & Naj Ghosheh (ed.), Work Sharing during the Great Recession, chapter 7, pages 203-258, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Fang, Tony & Lin, Carl & Tang, Xueli, 2018. "How Has the Two-Day Weekend Policy Affected Labour Supply and Household Work in China?," IZA Discussion Papers 11698, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 246-253.
    4. Wang, Xin & Sun, Mei, 2021. "A novel prediction model of multi-layer symbolic pattern network: Based on causation entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 575(C).
    5. Fabrice Gilles, 2015. "Evaluating the Impact of a Working Time Regulation on Capital Operating Time: The French 35-hour Work Week Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(2), pages 117-148, May.
    6. Arvind Ashta, 2017. "Work-sharing from Different Angles: A literature review," Working Papers CEB 17-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Camille Logeay, 2019. "Short-Term macroeconomic evaluation of the German minimum wage with a VAR/VECM," IMK Working Paper 197-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Jürgen Kromphardt & Camille Logeay, 2011. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Estimations and consequences for economic policy," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 43-67.
    9. Klara Zwickl & Franziska Disslbacher & Sigrid Stagl, 2016. "Work-sharing for a Sustainable Economy. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 111," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58684, April.
    10. Schreiber, Sven, 2008. "Did work-sharing work in France? Evidence from a structural co-integrated VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 478-490, June.
    11. Jason E. Taylor, 2011. "Work‐sharing During the Great Depression: Did the ‘President's Reemployment Agreement’ Promote Reemployment?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 133-158, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; work-sharing; France; VECM; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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