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Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

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Author Info

  • Camille Logeay

    ()
    (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Sven Schreiber

    ()
    (Goethe-University Frankfurt)

Abstract

The authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 03-2005.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:03-2005

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Keywords: unemployment; work-sharing; France; VECM; forecasting;

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References

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  1. Snower, Dennis J., 1994. "Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1999. "Employment and Distributional Effects of Restricting Working Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 2127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ortega, Javier, 2003. "Working-Time Regulation, Firm Heterogeneity, and Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  5. Matthieu Bunel, 2002. "Les déterminants des embauches des établissements à 35 heures : aides incitatives, effet de sélection et modalités de mise en oeuvre," Post-Print halshs-00178456, HAL.
  6. Jennifer Hunt, 1996. "Has Work-Sharing Worked in Germany?," NBER Working Papers 5724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  8. Calmfors, Lars & Hoel, Michael, 1988. " Work Sharing and Overtime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 45-62.
  9. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
  10. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "Working time regulation in a search economy with worker moral hazard," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 387-425, June.
  11. FitzRoy, Felix R. & Funke, Michael & Nolan, Michael A., 2002. "Working time, taxation and unemployment in general equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 333-344, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Schreiber, Sven, 2008. "Did work-sharing work in France? Evidence from a structural co-integrated VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 478-490, June.

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