Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach
AbstractThe authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 03-2005.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
unemployment; work-sharing; France; VECM; forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2006. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2053-2068.
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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