IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach


  • Camille Logeay
  • Sven Schreiber


The macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies) is analysed. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables, as well as inflation and output, out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001 are produced. A comparison of these forecasts - which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts - to the realized values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2006. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 2053-2068.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:17:p:2053-2068
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500427031

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. FitzRoy, Felix R. & Funke, Michael & Nolan, Michael A., 2002. "Working time, taxation and unemployment in general equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 333-344, June.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, June.
    3. Snower, Dennis J, 1995. "Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 110-135, Spring.
    4. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "Working time regulation in a search economy with worker moral hazard," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 387-425, June.
    5. Jennifer Hunt, 1999. "Has Work-Sharing Worked in Germany?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 117-148.
    6. Matthieu Bunel, 2002. "Les déterminants des embauches des établissements à 35 heures : aides incitatives, effet de sélection et modalités de mise en oeuvre," Post-Print halshs-00178456, HAL.
    7. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, March.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    9. Calmfors, Lars & Hoel, Michael, 1988. " Work Sharing and Overtime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 45-62.
    10. Ortega, Javier, 2003. "Working-Time Regulation, Firm Heterogeneity, and Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2000. "Employment and distributional effects of restricting working time," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1291-1326, June.
    12. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Lonnie Golden & Stuart Glosser, 2013. "Work sharing as a potential policy tool for creating more and better employment: A review of the evidence," Chapters,in: Work Sharing during the Great Recession, chapter 7, pages 203-258 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 246-253.
    3. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2015. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economic Papers 4564, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Fabrice Gilles, 2014. "Evaluating the impact of a working time regulation on capital operating time. The French 35-hour work week experience," Working Papers hal-01006765, HAL.
    5. Arvind Ashta, 2017. "Work-sharing from Different Angles: A literature review," Working Papers CEB 17-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Klara Zwickl & Franziska Disslbacher & Sigrid Stagl, 2015. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics Papers ieep4, Institute of Ecological Economics.
    7. Schreiber, Sven, 2008. "Did work-sharing work in France? Evidence from a structural co-integrated VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 478-490, June.
    8. Jason E. Taylor, 2011. "Work‐sharing During the Great Depression: Did the ‘President's Reemployment Agreement’ Promote Reemployment?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 133-158, January.
    9. Klara Zwickl & Franziska Disslbacher & Sigrid Stagl, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 111, WWWforEurope.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:17:p:2053-2068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.