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Effekte einer Arbeitszeitverkürzung: empirische Evidenz für Frankreich

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  • Camille Logeay
  • Sven Schreiber

Abstract

In diesem Papier wird an Hand eines Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodells (VECM) für den französischen Arbeitsmarkt untersucht, wie sich die dort Anfang 2000 eingeführte Verkürzung der Regelarbeitszeit in Verbindung mit Subventionen der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge ausgewirkt hat. Theoretisch sind die Effekte der Arbeitszeitverkürzung auf die Beschäftigung nicht eindeutig. Deshalb führen wir mit einem Arbeitsmarktmodell out-of-sample Prognosen für die Periode 1999q4-2001q2 durch. Mit dem Vergleich zwischen diesen Prognosen, die als Basissimulation (ohne Schock) angesehen werden können, und den realisierten Werten (mit Schock) können wir dann eine Aussage über die Effekte der Einführung der 35-Stunden-Woche (Schock) treffen. Die Ergebnisse sprechen u.a. für positive Beschäftigungseffekte des implementierten Politikmixes.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2003. "Effekte einer Arbeitszeitverkürzung: empirische Evidenz für Frankreich," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 362, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8.
    2. Bartsch, Klaus, 2007. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen von Arbeitszeiterhöhungen ohne Lohnausgleich: Makroökonometrische Wirkungsanalysen für Deutschland im Kontext der aktuellen Arbeitszeitdebatte," Arbeitspapiere 100, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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