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Canaries and Vultures: A Quantitative History of Monetary Mismanagement in Brazil

  • Pedro H. Albuquerque

    (Texas A&M International University)

  • Solange Gouvea

    (Central Bank of Brazil)

During the last two decades of the twentieth century, Brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation. This paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes. The consistency between the money supply and the expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan. It is shown that the unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity. The results not only suggest that the mismanagement of the monetary aggregates led to the failure of the plans, but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0511/0511027.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0511027.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0511027
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 34
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  4. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
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  6. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "BAD Taxation: Disintermediation and Illiquidity in a Bank Account Debits Tax Model," Public Economics 0511019, EconWPA, revised 27 Nov 2005.
  7. Faig, Miquel, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 847-61, November.
  8. Cardoso, Eliana A & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Brazil's Tropical Plan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 288-92, May.
  9. Amann, Edmund & Baer, Werner, 2003. "Anchors Away: The Cost and Benefits of Brazil's Devaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1033-1046, June.
  10. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jeffrey Sachs & Alvaro A. Zini Jr., 1996. "Brazilian Inflation and the Plano Real," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 13-37, 01.
  12. Marcio Goes Pinto Garcia, 1994. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: the case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Textos para discussão 326, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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  14. Merette, Marcel, 2000. "Post-Mortem of a Stabilization Plan: The Collor Plan in Brazil," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 417-452, July.
  15. Pereira, Luiz Bresser, 1987. "Inertial inflation and the Cruzado plan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1035-1044, August.
  16. Vito Tanzi, 1977. "Inflation, Lags in Collection, and the Real Value of Tax Revenue (L'inflation, les retards de recouvrement et la valeur réelle des recettes fiscales) (Inflación, desfases en la recaudación y valor ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 154-167, March.
  17. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  20. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1997. "Brazil's Incomplete Stabilization and Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 367-404.
  21. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  22. Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda & Brandão, Antonio Salazar Pessoa & Faro, Clovis de, 1988. "O reino mágico do choque heterodoxo," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 125, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  23. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  24. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1991. "Deficit finance and monetary dynamics in Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 173-197, November.
  25. Welch, John H. & Braga, Carlos Alberto Primo & de Tarso, Paulo & de Andre, Afonso, 1987. "Brazilian public sector disequilibrium," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1045-1052, August.
  26. Frederic S Mishkin & Miguel A Savastano, 2002. "Monetary Policy Strategies For Emerging Market Countries: Lessons From Latin America," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 45-82, September.
  27. Tanner, Evan, 1994. "Balancing the budget with implicit domestic default: The case of Brazil in the 1980s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 85-98, January.
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