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Canaries and vultures: A quantitative history of monetary mismanagement in Brazil

  • Albuquerque, Pedro H.
  • Gouvea, Solange

During the last two decades of the twentieth century, Brazil went through a sequence of failed stabilization plans that tried to cope with an enduring hyperinflation. This paper uses a money demand model to evaluate monetary policies during those episodes. Consistency between money supply and expected conditional money demand growth rates is considered for each plan. It is shown that unsuccessful programs were marked by excessive liquidity. The results not only suggest that monetary mismanagement led to the failure of the plans, but also that the excessive liquidity could have been predicted.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V9S-4V88FJ4-2/2/db92b7ef8cc813a8e31d6564b7644ca1
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 28 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 479-495

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:3:p:479-495
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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  1. Pedro Albuquerque, 2006. "BAD taxation: Disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 601-624, September.
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  9. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  10. Marcio Goes Pinto Garcia, 1994. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: the case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Textos para discussão 326, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
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  12. Faig, Miquel, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations and the Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 847-61, November.
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  16. Tanner, Evan, 1994. "Balancing the budget with implicit domestic default: The case of Brazil in the 1980s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 85-98, January.
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  20. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1991. "Deficit finance and monetary dynamics in Brazil and Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 173-197, November.
  21. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  23. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  24. Frederic S Mishkin & Miguel A Savastano, 2002. "Monetary Policy Strategies For Emerging Market Countries: Lessons From Latin America," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 45-82, September.
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