Brazil's Tropical Plan
This paper highlights the institutional features of the inflation process and contrasts two stabilization efforts in 1964-66 and in 1986.The inflation process in Brazil is highly institutional. It does not resemble hyperinflations where pricing and wage setting are geared to the exchange rate by the hour, making it possible to stop inflation by simply containing money creation and fixing the exchange rate. The two stabilization programs demonstrate that an incomes policy is an essential ingredient to non-recessionary stabilization. But they also show that demand restraint is inevitable if disinflation is to be viable. The 1964 program was gradualist and two-handed, relying on the supply side on wage repression. The 1986 plan was a heterodox shock treatment centered around an uncompromising price freeze and paying insufficient attention to the need for fiscal restraint.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1987|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Cardoso, Eliana A. and Rudiger Dornbusch. "Brazil's Tropical Plan," American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, May 1987, pp. 288-292.|
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- Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
- Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Mario Henrique Simonsen, 1987. "Inflation Stabilization with Incomes Policy Support: A Review of the Experience in Argentina, Brazil and Israel," NBER Working Papers 2153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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