Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach
The authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 211 7778 234
Fax: +49 211 7778 4234
Web page: http://www.imk-boeckler.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Snower, Dennis J., 1994.
"Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Snower, Dennis J, 1995. "Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 110-35, Spring.
- Dennis J. Snower, 1995. "Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 95/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Matthieu Bunel, 2002. "Les déterminants des embauches des établissements à 35 heures : aides incitatives, effet de sélection et modalités de mise en oeuvre," Post-Print halshs-00178456, HAL.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, July.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, July.
- Calmfors, Lars & Hoel, Michael, 1988. " Work Sharing and Overtime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 45-62.
- Guillaume ROCHETEAU, 2000.
"Working Time Regulation in a Search Economy with Worker Moral Hazard,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
00.06, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "Working time regulation in a search economy with worker moral hazard," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 387-425, June.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
- FitzRoy, Felix R. & Funke, Michael & Nolan, Michael A., 2002. "Working time, taxation and unemployment in general equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 333-344, June.
- Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1999.
"Employment and Distributional Effects of Restricting Working Time,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2127, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2000. "Employment and distributional effects of restricting working time," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1291-1326, June.
- Marimon, R. & Zilibotti, F., 1999. "Employment and Distributional Effects of Restricting Working Time," Economics Working Papers eco99/19, European University Institute.
- repec:tpr:qjecon:v:114:y:1999:i:1:p:117-148 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hunt, Jennifer, 1997.
"Has Work Sharing Worked in Germany?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
- Ortega, Javier, 2003. "Working-Time Regulation, Firm Heterogeneity, and Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:03-2005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Nemitz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.