IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/wpaper/03-2005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

Author

Listed:
  • Camille Logeay

    () (IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation)

  • Sven Schreiber

    () (Goethe-University Frankfurt)

Abstract

The authors analyse the macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies). Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables as well as inflation and output the authors produce out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001. A comparison of these forecasts -which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts- to the realised values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Logeay & Sven Schreiber, 2005. "Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach," IMK Working Paper 03-2005, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:03-2005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_wp_03_2005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Hunt, 1999. "Has Work-Sharing Worked in Germany?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 117-148.
    2. FitzRoy, Felix R. & Funke, Michael & Nolan, Michael A., 2002. "Working time, taxation and unemployment in general equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 333-344, June.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. Snower, Dennis J, 1995. "Evaluating Unemployment Policies: What Do the Underlying Theories Tell Us?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 110-135, Spring.
    5. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "Working time regulation in a search economy with worker moral hazard," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 387-425, June.
    6. Matthieu Bunel, 2002. "Les déterminants des embauches des établissements à 35 heures : aides incitatives, effet de sélection et modalités de mise en oeuvre," Post-Print halshs-00178456, HAL.
    7. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, January.
    8. Marimon, Ramon & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2000. "Employment and distributional effects of restricting working time," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1291-1326, June.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    10. Calmfors, Lars & Hoel, Michael, 1988. " Work Sharing and Overtime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 45-62.
    11. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
    12. Ortega, Javier, 2003. "Working-Time Regulation, Firm Heterogeneity, and Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 3736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klara Zwickl & Franziska Disslbacher & Sigrid Stagl, 2015. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics Papers ieep4, Institute of Ecological Economics.
    2. Arvind Ashta, 2017. "Work-sharing from Different Angles: A literature review," Working Papers CEB 17-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Fabrice Gilles, 2015. "Evaluating the Impact of a Working Time Regulation on Capital Operating Time: The French 35-hour Work Week Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(2), pages 117-148, May.
    4. Lonnie Golden & Stuart Glosser, 2013. "Work sharing as a potential policy tool for creating more and better employment: A review of the evidence," Chapters,in: Work Sharing during the Great Recession, chapter 7, pages 203-258 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Fang, Tony & Lin, Carl & Tang, Xueli, 2018. "How Has the Two-Day Weekend Policy Affected Labour Supply and Household Work in China?," IZA Discussion Papers 11698, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Schreiber, Sven, 2008. "Did work-sharing work in France? Evidence from a structural co-integrated VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 478-490, June.
    7. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 246-253.
    8. Jason E. Taylor, 2011. "Work‐sharing During the Great Depression: Did the ‘President's Reemployment Agreement’ Promote Reemployment?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 133-158, January.
    9. Zwickl, Klara & Disslbacher, Franziska & Stagl, Sigrid, 2015. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," Ecological Economic Papers 4564, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. repec:wfo:wstudy:58684 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Klara Zwickl & Franziska Disslbacher & Sigrid Stagl, 2016. "Work-sharing for a sustainable economy," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 111, WWWforEurope.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; work-sharing; France; VECM; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:03-2005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Nemitz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.