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Testing the effectiveness of the French work-sharing reform: a forecasting approach

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  • Camille Logeay
  • Sven Schreiber

Abstract

The macroeconomic impact of the French work-sharing reform of 2000 (a reduction of standard working hours in combination with wage subsidies) is analysed. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) for several labour market variables, as well as inflation and output, out-of-sample forecasts for 2000/2001 are produced. A comparison of these forecasts - which serve as a benchmark simulation without structural shifts - to the realized values (with shifts) suggests significant beneficial employment effects of the policy mix. Other shifts were absent and thus cannot explain the outcome. Output, productivity, hourly labour costs, and inflation are only transitorily affected or not at all.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500427031
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 2053-2068

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:17:p:2053-2068

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  1. Marimon, R. & Zilibotti, F., 1999. "Employment and Distributional Effects of Restricting Working Time," Economics Working Papers eco99/19, European University Institute.
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  8. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  9. Calmfors, Lars & Hoel, Michael, 1988. " Work Sharing and Overtime," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 45-62.
  10. FitzRoy, Felix R. & Funke, Michael & Nolan, Michael A., 2002. "Working time, taxation and unemployment in general equilibrium," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 333-344, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Schreiber, Sven, 2008. "Did work-sharing work in France? Evidence from a structural co-integrated VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 478-490, June.

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