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The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Hans Fehr
Sabine Jokisch
Laurence Kotlikoff

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Abstract

This paper and its companion study, Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff (2004), develop a three-region dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze general and skill-specific immigration policy during the demographic transition. The three regions are the U.S., Japan, and the EU. Immigration is often offered as a solution to the remarkable again underway in the developed world. Absent an immediate and dramatic change in immigration, dependency ratios will roughly double over the next three decades placing fiscal institutions, in particular, and economies, in general, under enormous stress. Can immigration alleviate these stresses? The answer is unclear bacause a number of offsetting factors are at play. First, increased immigration raises the size of the labor force, but also lowers real wages. Hence, the increase in the taxable wage base due to immigration will be less than might otherwise be expected. Second, immigrants arrive with some capital and accumulate more capital as they age. This raises labor productivity and both payroll and income tax bases. Third, immigrants, like natives, require public goods and become eligible for government welfare, health care, and pension benefits. Fiscally speaking, how much one earns' from a new immigrant depends on the immigant's skill level, which, in turn, determines the immigrant's level of earnings. The reason is that taxes and transfer payments are, in general, collected and distributed on a progressive basis. Consequently, high-skilled immigrants deliver a larger bang for the buck when it comes to paying net taxes (taxes paid net of transfer payments received). Our model confirms this point. Nonetheless, its findings, even with respect to high-skilled immigration, which we investigate in detail in this paper, are not pretty. It shows that a significant expansion of immigration, whether across all skill groups or among particular skill groups, will do remarkably little to alter the major capital shortage, tax hikes, and reductions in real wages that can be expected along the demographic transition.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10512.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10512

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Whitehouse, Edward, 2001. "Pension systems in 15 countries compared: the value of entitlements," MPRA Paper 14751, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Aging and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 02010, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Altig et al., 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1998. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Working Paper 9811, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Thai Than Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, . "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  12. Lundborg, Per & Segerstrom, Paul S., 2002. "The growth and welfare effects of international mass migration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 177-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-009, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2009. "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A multi-country simulation model," Discussion papers 09020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," MEA discussion paper series 04064, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-027, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms," MEA discussion paper series 05094, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," NBER Working Papers 11858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dennis P. J. Botman & Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland," IMF Working Papers 07/247, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2006. "Is the United States bankrupt?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 235-250. [Downloadable!]
  11. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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