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Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Hans Fehr ()
Sabine Jokisch ()
Laurence Kotlikoff ()

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Abstract

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff’s (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world’s demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world’s rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1326.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1326

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Related research
Keywords: demographic transition; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); fertility; mortality;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thai Than Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks," Discussion Paper 90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Altig et al., 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Sefton, James & Weale, Martin, 2001. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 93-128, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 1-74. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? – Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-009, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-027, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," NBER Working Papers 11858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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