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Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition

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Author Info

  • Hans Fehr
  • Sabine Jokisch
  • Laurence Kotlikoff

Abstract

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff’s (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world’s demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world’s rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1326.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1326

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Keywords: demographic transition; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); fertility; mortality;

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References

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  1. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  2. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2004. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(1), pages 71-90, 02.
  3. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & James Sefton & Martin Weale, 1998. "Simulating the transmission of wealth inequality via bequests," Working Paper 9811, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén, 2001. "Country portfolios," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 91, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks," Discussion Paper 2004-90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
  7. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Stefano Scarpetta, 1999. "The Retirement Decision in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 202, OECD Publishing.
  8. Ronald Lee & Jonathan Skinner, 1999. "Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 117-140, Winter.
  9. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  10. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
  12. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-027, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Implications of Social Spending for Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(3).
  4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
  5. Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," NBER Working Papers 11858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mario Catalan & Nicolas E. Magud, 2012. "A Tradeoff between the Output and Current Account Effects of Pension Reform," IMF Working Papers 12/283, International Monetary Fund.
  7. George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan Wooland, 2014. "The Dynamic Fiscal Effects of Demographic Shift: The Case of Australia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-616, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Chung Tran, 2014. "Temptation and Taxation with Elastic Labor," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-617, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  10. Melnikov, N.B. & O'Neill, B.C. & Dalton, M.G., 2012. "Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1475-1483.
  11. Takumi Naito & Laixun Zhao, 2008. "Aging, transitional dynamics, and gains from trade," Discussion Paper Series 215, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  12. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Fernando Perera-Tallo, 2012. "Optimal Retirement Age and Aging Population," 2012 Meeting Papers 728, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Patrick Georges & Marcel Mérette & Aylin Seckin§, 2009. "Should Canada Diversify its Trade Pattern? An Overlapping- Generations CGE Analysis of Trade and Ageing," Working Papers 0906E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

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