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Simulating Russia’S And Other Large Economies’ Challenging And Interconnected Transitions

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  • Benzell, Seth G.
  • Goryunov, Eugene
  • Kazakova, Marija
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.
  • LaGarda, Guillermo
  • Nesterova, Kristina
  • Zubarev, Andrey

Abstract

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Benzell, Seth G. & Goryunov, Eugene & Kazakova, Marija & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & LaGarda, Guillermo & Nesterova, Kristina & Zubarev, Andrey, 2015. "Simulating Russia’S And Other Large Economies’ Challenging And Interconnected Transitions," EconStor Preprints 121939, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:121939
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler & Andrey Polbin & Jeffrey Sachs & Simon Scheidegger, 2021. "Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(1), pages 3-46, February.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Andrey V. ZUBAREV & Andrey POLBIN, 2021. "Will the Paris accord accelerate climate change [Ускоряет Ли Парижское Соглашение Изменение Климата?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 8-37, February.
    3. Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина), 2018. "The Construction of a Global General Equilibrium Model for the Russian Economy Based on International Experience [Построение Глобальной Модели Общего Равновесия Для Российской Экономики На Основе М," Working Papers 021807, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. K. V. Nesterova, 2018. "Multiregional Models of General Equilibrium: Framework and Applications," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 12.
    5. Seth G. Benzell & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo Lagarda & Yifan Ye, 2018. "Simulating U.S. Business Cash Flow Taxation in a 17-Region Global Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-312, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2016. "Pension System Solvency – From Linguistics to Economics," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(II), pages 83-102, June.
    7. Zubarev, A. & Rybak, K., 2022. "The impact of global shocks on the Russian economy: FAVAR approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 48-68.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economy; transitions;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General

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