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Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migration in Europe and neighborhood countries using a multi-regions OLG model (INGENUE2). Our quantitative results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not at the same stage in the ageing process. Despite some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that a realistic migration scenario does not offset the effect of ageing in host regions; leaving room for pension reforms. The adverse economic consequences of emigration appear to be all the more important than the origin region is advanced in the ageing process. Finally, we consider and evaluate a policy of immigration in which the decline of the labor force in Western Europe is eschewed.

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File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev119/ei119e.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 119 ()
Pages: 115-153

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-3te

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Keywords: CGEM; migration; international capital flows; neighborhood policy;

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References

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  1. Alho, J. & Borgy, V., 2007. "Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-regional Model," Working papers 174, Banque de France.
  2. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  5. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Juha Alho & vladimir Borgy, 2007. "Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-Regional Model," Working Papers 2007-09, CEPII research center.
  7. Ray Barrell & Rebecca Riley & Fitzgerald, J., 2007. "EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts," NIESR Discussion Papers 292, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - The Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," NBER Working Papers 10096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
  10. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  11. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  12. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration from the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 07/61, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "“Better Safe than Sorry” - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen’s Perspective and Why Nots," MPRA Paper 33571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Marga Peeters, 2012. "Better Safe than Sorry - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(3), September.

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