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Macroeconomic consequences of global endogenous migration: a general equilibrium analysis

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  • Borgy, V.
  • Chojnicki, X.
  • Le Garrec , G.
  • Schwellnus , C.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United-Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population ageing in the receiving regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 333.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:333

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Keywords: CGEM; Migration; International capital flows.;

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References

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  1. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2005. "L'immigration « choisie » face aux défis économiques du vieillissement démographique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1359-1384.
  2. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2007. "Explaining U.S. Immigration, 1971-1998," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 359-373, May.
  3. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
  4. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  5. Marchiori, Luca & Shen, I-Ling & Docquier, Frédéric, 2009. "Brain Drain in Globalization: A General Equilibrium Analysis from the Sending Countries' Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 4207, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  7. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Mayda, Anna Maria, 2007. "International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 6289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. François Héran & Gilles Pison, 2007. "Two children per woman in France in 2006: are immigrants to blame?," Population and Societies 432, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
  11. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Klaus Deininger & Lyn Squire, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," CEMA Working Papers 512, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  14. Chojnicki, Xavier & Docquier, Frédéric & Ragot, Lionel, 2005. "Should the U.S. Have Locked the Heaven's Door? Reassessing the Benefits of the Postwar Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1676, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  17. Hongyi Li & Lyn Squire & Tao Zhang & Heng-fu Zou, 1999. "A Data Set on Income Distribution," CEMA Working Papers 575, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS hal-00962464, HAL.
  2. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Labor Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2014. "The Great Shift : Macroeconomic projections For the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon," Working Papers hal-00962464, HAL.
  4. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  5. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.

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