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Macroeconomic consequences of global endogenous migration: a general equilibrium analysis

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  • Borgy, V.
  • Chojnicki, X.
  • Le Garrec , G.
  • Schwellnus , C.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United-Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population ageing in the receiving regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 333.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:333

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research

Keywords: CGEM; Migration; International capital flows.;

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References

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  1. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
  2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
  3. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  4. Xavier Chojnicki & Frédéric Docquier & Lionel Ragot, 2005. "L'immigration « choisie » face aux défis économiques du vieillissement démographique," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1359-1384.
  5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luca Marchiori & I-Ling Shen & Frédéric Docquier, 2013. "Brain Drain In Globalization: A General Equilibrium Analysis From The Sending Countries' Perspective," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1582-1602, 04.
  7. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  8. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Ximena Clark & Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffery G. Williamson, 2002. "Explaining US Immigration 1971-1998," CEPR Discussion Papers 453, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  10. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
  11. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 565-91, September.
  12. Chojnicki, Xavier & Docquier, Frédéric & Ragot, Lionel, 2005. "Should the U.S. Have Locked the Heaven's Door? Reassessing the Benefits of the Postwar Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 1676, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. François Héran & Gilles Pison, 2007. "Two children per woman in France in 2006: are immigrants to blame?," Population and Societies 432, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
  14. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  15. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  16. Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  2. E. J. Wilson & K. Jayanthakumaran & R. Verma, 2012. "Demographics, Labor Mobility, and Productivity," Development Economics Working Papers 23348, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2012. "The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon," Working Papers 2012-03, CEPII research center.
  4. Jean Fouré & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné, 2010. "The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture," Working Papers 2010-27, CEPII research center.

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