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Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migrations in Europe and neighbourhood countries. In order to do so, we rely on a multi-region world overlapping generations model (INGENUE2). The rich modeling framework of this multi-regions model allows us to put into connection migration with the "triangular" relationship between population aging, pension reforms and international capital markets. With this model, we are also able to quantify the demographic and economic consequences of migration ows on both the regions receiving and losing migrants. Our analysis is based on a very detailed migration scenario between Western Europe and the Neighborhood regions constructed by taking into account both the current situation and some prospective empirical scenarios. Our quantitative results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not at the same stage in the ageing process. Concerning the regions receiving migrants, despite some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that our realistic migration scenario does not offset the effect of ageing in these regions, leaving room for pension reforms. Concerning the regions losing migrants, the adverse economic consequences of emigration appear to be all the more important than the region is advanced in the ageing process (and is already suffering from a declining population).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2007-23.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-23

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Keywords: CGEM; INGENUE; Capital movements; Demoeconomics; Demography;

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References

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  1. Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
  3. Rebecca Riley & Ray Barrell, 2007. "EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts," NIESR Discussion Papers, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 1491, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  4. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
  5. repec:nsr:niesrd:292 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series, Boston University - Department of Economics dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  7. Alho, J. & Borgy, V., 2007. "Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-regional Model," Working papers, Banque de France 174, Banque de France.
  8. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Juha Alho & vladimir Borgy, 2007. "Global Ageing and Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Uncertainty in a Multi-Regional Model," Working Papers, CEPII research center 2007-09, CEPII research center.
  10. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  11. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  12. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-, September.
  13. Dora M. Iakova, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Migration From the New European Union Member States to the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 07/61, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Cécily Defoort & Carine Drapier, 2012. "Immigration and its dependence on the welfare system: the case of France," Working Papers, HAL hal-00995293, HAL.
  2. Marga Peeters, 2012. "Better Safe than Sorry - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(3), September.
  3. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "“Better Safe than Sorry” - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen’s Perspective and Why Nots," MPRA Paper 33571, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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