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Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migrations in Europe and neighbourhood countries. In order to do so, we rely on a multi-region world overlapping generations model (INGENUE2). The rich modeling framework of this multi-regions model allows us to put into connection migration with the "triangular" relationship between population aging, pension reforms and international capital markets. With this model, we are also able to quantify the demographic and economic consequences of migration ows on both the regions receiving and losing migrants. Our analysis is based on a very detailed migration scenario between Western Europe and the Neighborhood regions constructed by taking into account both the current situation and some prospective empirical scenarios. Our quantitative results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not at the same stage in the ageing process. Concerning the regions receiving migrants, despite some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that our realistic migration scenario does not offset the effect of ageing in these regions, leaving room for pension reforms. Concerning the regions losing migrants, the adverse economic consequences of emigration appear to be all the more important than the region is advanced in the ageing process (and is already suffering from a declining population).
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Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki, 2007. "Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions," Working Papers 2007-23, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2007-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cécily Defoort & Carine Drapier, 2012. "Immigration and its dependence on the welfare system: the case of France," Working Papers hal-00995293, HAL.
    2. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh, 2015. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Unskilled Labor Entry and Skilled Labor Exit in Iran," MPRA Paper 95781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "“Better Safe than Sorry” - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen’s Perspective and Why Nots," MPRA Paper 33571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marga Peeters, 2012. "Better Safe than Sorry - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGEM; INGENUE; Capital movements; Demoeconomics; Demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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